BTC bear-market bottom signal flashes as 10.5M coins sit…

More than half of all bitcoin in circulation is now held at an unrealized loss, with 10.5 million BTC underwater against 9.8 million in profit, according to Glassnode data. The crossover — the first of the current cycle — has historically coincided with major bear-market bottoms, though the duration of those conditions has ranged from one month to nearly a year across previous cycles.

Why it matters

This supply-in-loss crossover has appeared at the lows of every significant BTC bear market: the 2015 cycle saw the condition persist for almost a year, 2019 for roughly six months, the March 2020 Covid capitulation for around one month, and the 2022 bear market for approximately six months. The signal is historically reliable as a bottom zone identifier, but it offers no precision on timing — markets have ground sideways for extended periods before recovering.

Compounding the signal, BTC touched its 200-week moving average at $61,300 on Thursday — a long-term trend indicator that has acted as major support in every prior bear market cycle. Should price break below the psychologically significant $60,000 level, the next key support sits near $54,000, which corresponds to bitcoin's realized price — the average acquisition cost of all circulating supply based on each coin's last on-chain move. Bitcoin has traded below its realized price during every major bear market in history.