Glassnode
Bitcoin slipped below the $60,000 mark last week as loss realization, sustained ETF outflows, and defensive options positioning kept sellers in control. Glassnode's Week On-Chain report frames the move as a spot-led flush: Spot Cumulative Volume Delta fell far faster than futures over the past ten days, while open interest stayed subdued and funding held stubbornly positive, a pattern that points to aggressive sell-side flow on spot venues rather than a leverage-driven unwind. Coinbase spot flows have since turned constructive, while Binance traders remain defensive, and open interest has now spiked as derivatives catch down to spot.
Why it matters
The market is sitting deep in discount territory. BTC trades around $62.3K, a 19% discount to the True Market Mean at $77K and roughly 18% below its 200-day moving average near $76,466. The 90-day simple moving average of Net Realized Profit and Loss reads -$205M per day, confirming a loss-dominant regime that tilts the center of gravity toward the Realized Price at $53.4K rather than the True Market Mean. On the macro side, the DXY printed 101.37 on June 23, reclaiming its 200-day moving average at 98.72 for the first time since April's Liberation Day shock, a reassertion that historically pressures BTC rather than supports it. The 10-year yield is anchored at 4.50%, and the VIX ticked from 16.2 mid-week to 19.49 by Friday's close.
Market impact
Institutional demand has not absorbed the drawdown this cycle. The 7-day average of US spot ETF net flows fell to nearly -$300M per day, one of the most persistent withdrawal stretches since launch, with Grayscale's GBTC accounting for more than 16,000 BTC of redemptions over the past 90 days. A dense short-term holder supply cluster between $66.8K and $70.7K defines the immediate overhead resistance and likely caps any relief bounce until reclaimed, with the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $71.4K sitting further above. Implied volatility has stabilized near 38% on the one-month tenor after briefly spiking above 42%, but realized volatility continues to climb toward 42%, leaving the volatility risk premium roughly 4 points negative. Twenty-five delta skew has rebuilt sharply, with the one-week reading climbing from around 12% to 24%, and dealer positioning is dominated by long gamma between $60K and $64K, a setup that should contain volatility around current spot but does little to resolve the directional standoff between ongoing distribution and the early signs of value-driven demand on Coinbase.
Frequently asked questions
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Why did Bitcoin drop below $60K this week?
Glassnode's Week On-Chain attributes the breakdown to a spot-led flush: spot CVD fell far faster than futures over ten days while open interest stayed subdued and funding held positive, pointing to aggressive spot selling rather than a leverage unwind. Persistent ETF outflows and a -$205M per day loss-realization…
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How persistent are the current Bitcoin ETF outflows?
The 7-day average of US spot ETF net flows fell to nearly -$300M per day, one of the most sustained withdrawal stretches since the products launched. Grayscale's GBTC accounts for more than 16,000 BTC of redemptions over the past 90 days, suggesting the pressure is concentrated in legacy holder liquidation rather than…
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What on-chain levels define the current bear market range?
Glassnode frames the range between the Realized Price at $53.4K and the True Market Mean at $77K. The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $71.4K sits inside that band, and a dense supply cluster between $66.8K and $70.7K represents the most immediate overhead resistance likely to cap any near-term recovery.
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Is the dollar strength hurting Bitcoin right now?
The DXY printed 101.37 on June 23, reclaiming its 200-day moving average at 98.72 for the first time since April's Liberation Day shock. The 10-year yield is anchored at 4.50%. With BTC trading 18% below its own 200-day MA while equities have recovered, the macro backdrop reads as a headwind for Bitcoin rather than a…
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Are there any early signs of a Bitcoin bottom forming?
Glassnode flags several constructive developments beneath the surface: Coinbase spot flows have turned positive while Binance remains defensive, short-term holder cost bases are adjusting lower to $71.4K, and dealer long-gamma positioning between $60K and $64K is containing volatility. These are early-stage signals…
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