Glassnode
Bitcoin dropped from roughly $63K to a local low near $58K over the past week before stabilising around the $60K region into the weekend, according to Glassnode's Week 27 Market Pulse. The move extends the sharp sell-off earlier this month, with downside momentum easing but buyers still failing to mount a sustained recovery.
The pulse flags structural adjustment beneath the surface. Spot markets keep seeing persistent net selling even as trading activity picks up, which Glassnode reads as available liquidity being used to distribute rather than accumulate at current prices. Derivatives tell a similar story: open interest continues to contract, traders are paying up for downside protection, and options skew has pushed well above its historical range, while funding stays subdued. Institutional positioning has also softened, with US spot ETFs slipping into an aggregate unrealized loss position and continued net outflows signalling reluctance to add exposure.
Why it matters
On-chain data offers a more balanced read. Entity-adjusted transfer volume has recovered, pointing to large-scale capital still moving on-chain, but subdued network fee demand suggests underlying activity is muted. Rising hot capital, the share of supply held by short-term, price-sensitive wallets, increases the market's susceptibility to volatility, a setup that tends to amplify the next leg in whichever direction conviction returns.
Market impact
The combination of defensive spot flow, contracting leverage, stretched downside hedges, and ETF outflows leaves Bitcoin stabilising but not recovering. A sustained bounce from here likely needs a return of buyer conviction across all three layers, not just a pause in selling pressure. Until that bid shows up, the $60K region looks more like a floor being tested than a base being built.
Source: [BTC Market Pulse: Week 27 — Glassnode Research – Digital Asset Market Intelligence](https://research.glassnode.com/btc-market-pulse-week-27/)
Frequently asked questions
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How far did Bitcoin drop this week according to Glassnode?
Bitcoin fell from roughly $63K to a local low near $58K before stabilising around the $60K region into the weekend, per Glassnode's Week 27 Market Pulse.
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What does the derivatives picture look like right now?
Leverage is unwinding, open interest is contracting, and traders are paying up for downside protection. Options skew has pushed well above its historical range, while funding stays subdued, reflecting a cautious market.
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Are US spot Bitcoin ETFs still seeing outflows?
Yes. US spot ETFs have slipped into an aggregate unrealized loss position, and continued net outflows suggest institutional investors remain reluctant to add exposure at current prices.
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What is hot capital, and why does it matter here?
Hot capital measures the share of supply held by short-term, price-sensitive wallets. Glassnode flags rising hot capital as increasing Bitcoin's susceptibility to volatility on the next directional move.
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What would it take for BTC to sustain a recovery from $60K?
Glassnode's read is that a meaningful return of buyer conviction is needed across spot, derivatives, and institutional demand. A pause in selling pressure alone is unlikely to flip the defensive posture.
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