CryptoSlate
The study finds a 20 MW Bitcoin mine on a hypothetical 100 MW Irish wind farm cannot turn a profit even if Bitcoin rallies 30% annually, as long as network hashrate compounds at the same pace. Researchers at the Technological University of the Shannon tested every scenario where Bitcoin's annual growth matched the global hashrate growth at 5%, 15%, and 30% rates: the modeled six-year net present value lands at minus €10.1 million in all three cases, with a negative 5.7% return.
Why it matters
The diagonal is the punchline. A Bitcoin rally normally reads as a windfall for miners, yet this model shows it produces the same loss as a flat, stagnant market when hashrate keeps pace. Every new machine that a rally attracts erodes the next machine's share of block rewards, keeping renewable-powered projects pinned to the loss diagonal unless BTC growth outruns hashrate growth by 10 to 15 points annually. Profitable outcomes narrow to the upper-left corner of the sensitivity table: 30% BTC growth against 15% hashrate growth yields a positive +€7.7M NPV, but narrowing that spread to 30% against 25% swings it back to -€5.1M.
Market impact
The price side of the model is already in the danger zone. Bitcoin trades near $63,600, roughly below the €60,000 floor the researchers modeled, and every price they tested below €80,000 produces no payback under realistic curtailment conditions. Spot hashprice sits at $31.73 per petahash per day, a level Hashrate Index calls at or below breakeven for many miners, depending on hardware and power costs. The 2028 halving hits before the modeled six-year equipment life ends, cutting block rewards a second time inside the project's payback window. Meanwhile, Riot's $9.1 billion AI lease at its Rockdale campus is one signal of where cheap power campuses are finding more reliable buyers than Bitcoin mining currently offers, with CoinShares projecting listed miners could pull 70% of revenue from AI by year-end.
Frequently asked questions
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What does the study's diagonal sensitivity result mean?
When Bitcoin's annual price growth matches hashrate growth, at 5%, 15%, or 30%, the modeled 20 MW mine loses the same amount: €10.1M in net present value over six years, with a negative 5.7% return. A rally of identical size produces the same loss as a flat market in this model.
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What spread between BTC and hashrate growth makes the project profitable?
Bitcoin needs to outpace hashrate growth by roughly 10 to 15 percentage points annually. At 30% BTC growth versus 15% hashrate growth, the project posts a +€7.7M NPV. Narrow that gap to 30% versus 25%, and the result swings back to -€5.1M.
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Why does current BTC trading sit below the study's danger zone?
Bitcoin trades near $63,600, below the €60,000 floor the researchers modeled. At that price, every curtailment scenario from 5% up to 25% fails to recover the project inside the six-year equipment horizon.
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Which mining hardware does the study say is economically viable?
Only the Antminer S21 Hydro at roughly 16 joules per terahash produces economic outcomes in 2024 conditions. Older Antminer S9 hardware at 98 J/TH fails every tested scenario the researchers modeled.
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How does the 2028 halving fit inside the model's six-year horizon?
The next Bitcoin block subsidy halving arrives before the modeled six-year equipment life ends. Block rewards fall a second time inside the project's payback window, adding pressure on top of the spread sensitivity the study already identifies.
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