Hyperliquid's HIP-4 event contract posted 6.05 million contracts in notional volume on its first trading day, capturing roughly 0.7% of total prediction market share for the session. The launch puts it in early competition with established venues, though the gap remains wide: Kalshi recorded 546 million contracts and Polymarket hit 190 million contracts on the same day.
For a first-day debut, the number is a proof-of-concept rather than a market-share grab. Hyperliquid's edge — if it develops one — will likely come from its on-chain perps infrastructure and existing liquidity base rather than raw volume alone. Whether HIP-4 can close the gap with Polymarket over the coming weeks is the metric worth watching.
Frequently asked questions
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What factors could help Hyperliquid increase its market share in prediction markets?
Hyperliquid's potential to increase market share may depend on its on-chain perps infrastructure and existing liquidity base, rather than just the volume of contracts traded.
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How does Hyperliquid's first-day volume compare to its competitors?
On its first day, Hyperliquid's HIP-4 event contract recorded 6.05 million contracts, significantly lower than Kalshi's 546 million and Polymarket's 190 million contracts.
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