Glassnode
Long-Term Holder relative unrealized loss — the total paper loss held by the most convicted cohort, normalized by market cap — is sitting at 14% on its 30-day simple moving average. By that measure, the current cycle is nowhere near the pain threshold past bear markets have resolved at, which historically lands around 70% of market cap.
Why it matters
Prior cycle bottoms in Bitcoin have consistently required LTHs to absorb the bulk of the loss-bearing supply. The 30D-SMA at 14% implies that the cohort that bought early and held through volatility is still largely in profit on a mark-to-market basis. Past resets only completed once long-term holders capitulated into the same loss zone retail did — a transfer of underwater supply that historically marked durable lows.
Market impact
Until that 70% threshold comes into view, the historical pattern argues against calling a structural bottom. The gap between current pain and prior-cycle pain can close two ways: a further drawdown that pushes underwater LTH supply higher, or a long sideways grind that slowly burns the unrealized profit down. Neither path is fast, and the data argues against the latter having done the work yet.
Frequently asked questions
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What is LTH Relative Unrealized Loss?
It is the total unrealized loss held by long-term holders, normalized by market cap. The metric measures how deep underwater the most convicted cohort is on a mark-to-market basis.
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What is the current LTH unrealized loss reading?
The 30-day simple moving average sits at 14% of market cap, according to the seed data.
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What level has historically marked prior bear-market bottoms?
Past cycle lows have resolved at roughly 70% of market cap for LTH relative unrealized loss — substantially above the current 14% reading.
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Why does the gap between 14% and 70% matter?
Prior cycle resets only completed once long-term holders capitulated into the same loss zone retail had already reached. The current reading implies that transfer of underwater supply has not yet happened.
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How could the gap to 70% close?
Historically the gap closes via a deeper drawdown that pushes underwater LTH supply higher, or a long sideways grind that slowly bleeds unrealized profit. The data argues the slow-grind path has not yet done the work.
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