TheBlock
The Block's onchain analysis is challenging the New York Times' insider-trading narrative around election betting on Polymarket and Kalshi. The account behind the trades, dubdubdub2, wagered $191,277 on Sen. Pete Ricketts' re-election in Nebraska and $622,608 on a Democratic win in Michigan's Senate race, banking roughly $258,000 on Polymarket. The Times and Vanderbilt University researchers flagged the bets as suspiciously timed ahead of Times/Siena poll releases. But blockchain records tell a different story: deposits matched to Kalshi trades suggest the trader kept buying about 10 minutes after the Nebraska poll went public, and held every position through Election Day rather than cashing out on the poll moves.
Why it matters
If the insider theory held, it would point to a leak at the Times or the Siena Research Institute and land on prediction markets already under Senate scrutiny. The onchain evidence instead fits what the experts describe as a wealthy crypto native with a taste for large directional bets. The linked wallets show $1.05 million staked on Zohran Mamdani's mayoral win, tens of millions in DeFi yield-farming volume across Aave and Pendle, and a $783,000 Hyperliquid loss days before the Senate bets, hardly the profile of someone quietly monetizing stolen poll data.
Barnard economist Rajiv Sethi said the trades looked like directional bets on the eventual outcomes, not poll-timing plays, and noted that the trader used identity-verifying Kalshi, which suggests little concern about being identified. HEC Montréal finance professor Vincent Grégoire called the simplest explanation that there was no foul play.
Market impact
Foul play cannot be definitively ruled out and investigations are live: Polymarket told the Times it spotted the trades immediately and is probing, while the Times and Siena plan their own reviews. The episode is also a showcase for onchain transparency, with public blockchain data serving as a trader's defense against a misconduct accusation.
The scrutiny lands in a sector with real enforcement precedent: the Justice Department charged a US Army soldier with betting on classified information on Polymarket, and a former White House teleprompter operator settled CFTC charges over Kalshi mention markets. Watch whether Polymarket and Kalshi tighten insider-trading rules further as the reviews conclude.
Frequently asked questions
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Who is the trader behind the suspicious Polymarket election bets?
Onchain analysis matched the bets to a Polymarket account named dubdubdub2. Its linked wallets show a two-year history of large directional bets, DeFi yield farming on Aave and Pendle, and more than $13 million in stablecoin withdrawals from Kraken since October 2025.
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How much did the trader make on the Senate race bets?
Roughly $258,000 on Polymarket, including more than $77,000 on Nebraska and over $180,000 on Michigan. Onchain transfers suggest it may have earned more on Kalshi, receiving about $1.98 million from Zero Hash wallets versus roughly $1.39 million deposited.
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What evidence contradicts the insider-trading theory?
Suspected Kalshi purchases came about 10 minutes after the Nebraska poll was published, all positions were held to Election Day, one Michigan bet was placed while Times/Siena polling was still underway, and the trader had a long history of similar large bets.
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What did experts say about the Polymarket election bets?
Rajiv Sethi of Barnard College said the activity looked like directional bets on election outcomes rather than poll-timing trades. Vincent Grégoire of HEC Montréal said the simplest explanation is no foul play, while noting foul play cannot be definitively ruled out.
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Are Polymarket and Kalshi investigating the trades?
Polymarket told the Times it spotted the trades immediately and is conducting its own investigation; Kalshi declined to comment. Both platforms tightened their insider-trading rules earlier this year amid Senate scrutiny.
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