Kalshi Customers Lose Access in 3 States as CFTC Drafts Rules
The dispute pits state gambling laws against federal oversight, while proposed consumer protections could shape whether event contracts expand across the U.S.
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The dispute pits state gambling laws against federal oversight, while proposed consumer protections could shape whether event contracts expand across the U.S.
A 100M-contract TradFi incumbent, a fast-growing prediction platform, and the federal regulator publicly sparred in a CFTC committee room. The bill will eventually land on retail traders.
The milestone highlights a CFTC-cleared route for U.S. traders into perpetual futures, a notable shift in access to crypto derivatives.
Congressional passage remains the key test for whether Kalshi's lower October shutdown risk holds.
Block-trade infrastructure is the real signal: Susquehanna's market-making depth turns event contracts into a hedging tool Wall Street can actually use, not a retail novelty bolted onto an exchange.
The filings push Kalshi from event contracts into TradFi-style equity and commodity proxies, while the CME-CFTC lawsuit over the May BTC perp approval still hangs over the timeline.
Polling agreed on Becerra's lead but not the race for second, while Kalshi's prices remained a time-specific read rather than a final election result.
The lawsuits test whether federal prediction-market status can shield sports contracts from state gambling rules and bring Coinbase, Robinhood and Webull into the compliance fight.
Wellington's $1.3T-AUM debut on Kalshi's cap table, alongside a 2027 IPO runway and $4B annualized revenue, reframes prediction markets from crypto curiosity to institutional asset class.
Three prediction-market platforms just received council letters over marketing aimed at younger users, landing days after the CFTC pulled Kalshi back from a state shutdown and a $36B NY AG suit.
The order escalates a federal-state fight over prediction markets, with sports-betting authority and the reach of federal oversight at stake.
Year-one revenue share is waived to attract liquidity providers, but the real signal is prediction markets competing on infrastructure: latency, multicast delivery, depth-of-book access now table…
The hire lands as Polymarket's monthly volume runs at roughly a third of Kalshi's, the prediction-market field is being squeezed from both sides by regulators and a wave of new entrants.
Tennessee's attorney general is treating federally regulated prediction markets as unlicensed sports books, a legal theory that, if it holds, could unwind every open contract on both platforms.
The quick reset clears an immediate overhang for Kalshi, while state-level fights will test how far event contracts can expand in the U.S.
The integration puts prediction-market probabilities for macro, geopolitical and asset-price events on a dedicated-fiber rail for institutional trading.
Dismissed without prejudice leaves a refile on the table, but the niche at the center of the suit barely traded: $1,842 of volume against Kalshi's $148B annual book.
The order escalates a federal-state fight over whether sports event contracts are derivatives or gambling, while New York's court challenge remains unresolved.
The suit adds to legal pressure already on Kalshi from New York, Washington, and Michigan, and opens a new front where data licensors can act as private enforcers against prediction markets.
Kalshi still leads the prediction-market space at ~59% of open interest, but its share fell from ~62% as Polymarket quietly climbed to ~41%, fueled by capital rotating out of smaller books.