Prediction Markets Hit $188B in Q3 Volume, Up 70% From Q2
A 21-fold year-over-year jump puts prediction markets’ rapid expansion in focus, with sports making up about 40% of Kalshi’s Q3 trading.
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A 21-fold year-over-year jump puts prediction markets’ rapid expansion in focus, with sports making up about 40% of Kalshi’s Q3 trading.
The prediction-market estimate offers a snapshot of trader expectations, not a confirmed economic forecast.
The temporary order eases a state-level legal threat to Kalshi's sports contracts but does not settle the underlying dispute.
The shift to targeted promotions comes as Kalshi posts record volume and pursues a reported $40B valuation, raising questions about how much activity incentives sustain.
The move lands as Kalshi reports record monthly volume, draws direct exposure from Ark Invest ETFs and reportedly pursues a $1B funding round.
A potential 82% valuation jump in months would put prediction markets among the largest private-market bets, while Kalshi has also begun early IPO discussions.
The live reading offers a snapshot of the American Power Index's current political tilt, not an explanation of what is driving it.
Celebrity equity stakes and league deals from Novig and Kalshi are pulling casual sports fans into trading products, but the platforms' transaction revenue rewards activity rather than accuracy.
The ruling deepens a circuit split over whether federal commodities law shields sports event contracts, leaving Kalshi facing a state-by-state fight and more appeals.
The ruling puts 69% of Kalshi’s modeled retail sports demand in states without legal online sportsbooks at risk, while leaving state-by-state geofencing legally viable.
The ruling deepens a split among federal appeals courts, increasing the odds the Supreme Court will decide who regulates sports prediction markets.
More than doubling from the start of the year, activity highlights prediction markets’ accelerating adoption, with Kalshi driving most of the latest increase.
The advisory stops short of banning markets tied to a named person's words or actions, but sets a high bar that could narrow which event contracts clear supervisory review.
Volume is the first metric traders read to judge liquidity, and one automated-looking trade size drove over half of it on both markets, raising hard questions about what the activity actually…
The 70% annual compounding call hinges on financial-asset contracts capturing 0.5% of a $900T pool, with crypto and commodities already pulling Kalshi's crypto share from under 5% to 20% in eight…
The dispute centers on whether payout-based volume conventions explain Kalshi's $539M figure, or whether fee incentives enabled artificial activity.
The dispute centers on roughly $539M in 24-hour ETH-PERP volume against $3.1M in open interest, while Kalshi defends its market-making incentives.
Faster feeds could improve prices for ordinary bettors, but software, capital and execution speed still give professional firms a clear edge.
The named updates span wallet software, commodity derivatives, Dogecoin ETF activity and Uniswap infrastructure.
The proposal would test whether prediction-market platforms can extend into continuous single-stock derivatives while staying inside the US regulatory framework.