Polymarket Files to Restore Margin Trading for U.S. Users
A derivatives license would let Polymarket's U.S. arm offer leveraged bets on events for the first time since a 2022 CFTC settlement, putting it on a regulatory footing with Kalshi.
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A derivatives license would let Polymarket's U.S. arm offer leveraged bets on events for the first time since a 2022 CFTC settlement, putting it on a regulatory footing with Kalshi.
The judge who set the XRP precedent is now drawing a line on prediction-market expansion, signalling that state gambling statutes still apply where federal CFTC oversight stops.
A second regulated US prediction-market venue chasing margin trading means the legal pathway Kalshi opened in March is no longer a one-off: niche event-derivative books are lining up behind it.
A federal-event-contract license is not a state-arena pass: a $1B damages claim lets tribal and state plaintiffs drag any venue back into state court, even after Kalshi's CFTC win.
The push pairs influencer deals, MLB and CNN/CNBC partnerships, and a CFTC-supervised sports app, betting that mainstream visibility can offset a 2020 settlement and a 2024 CEO home raid.
SDNY Judge Torres ruled the CEA does not preempt state gambling law over Kalshi's sports-event contracts, putting the fight with regulators in the world's financial capital squarely in the loss…
Brian Armstrong's on-air aside resolving a string of prediction markets positions is small in dollars but a clean proof of how thin the line is between a public CEO and a manipulable market.
The market move is modest (a four-point swing on Polymarket) but the political backdrop, with Trump lobbying FIFA directly, is what turns a single match line into a prediction-market story.
Kalshi's share of crypto-related prediction market volume jumped to 79% by end of Q2, up 42% since April, while Polymarket retains the deeper crypto-native user base.
Kalshi lost key Nevada and Michigan rulings this week while the CFTC backs the industry federally and North Carolina moves to tax event-contract revenue, making the regulatory perimeter the only…
The regulator's substance-over-label test reaches Polymarket and Kalshi as the two venues draw institutional capital and M&A attention, and forces any EU distributor to clear the MiFID II bar.
The $3M Kalshi market tied to a song's chart position became the mechanism, and Spotify is now cutting off the prediction platforms that referenced its data.
A roughly 83x monthly jump, peaking at $5.6B on June 22, shows sports catalysts can pull retail capital into event contracts faster than any other category this cycle.
Kalshi alone grew 87% MoM to $31.5B, and the World Cup is pulling the second-highest prediction-market month on record after the 2024 US election cycle.
The state-versus-CFTC fight over who regulates prediction markets just got its first concrete court loss for Kalshi, and the TRO is only the opening round.
Bernstein says every major prediction platform now owns both consumer distribution and exchange infrastructure, and the two venues still missing that pairing sit squarely in the crosshairs.
DKeX enters a market dominated by Polymarket and Kalshi, with DraftKings reporting consumer prediction-market volume above $3B since its December entry.
Kalshi alone holds $1.2B of the total, a 91.9% monthly jump, as the FIFA tournament pulls retail and event-driven flow into a category still finding its legs.
An 8x step-up in nine months points to a prediction-market category that institutions are no longer treating as a niche experiment.
The jump from $22B to a reported $40B in a single funding cycle reflects prediction markets' shift from niche crypto rails to a sports-betting volume machine that has nearly 4x'd year-over-year.