CoinDesk
Ray Dalio said on X that Bitcoin lacks the privacy and scale central banks require in a reserve asset, pointing to its fully transparent public ledger and a 90-day correlation coefficient of 0.89 with the Nasdaq — an R² of 0.79 — as evidence that BTC trades as a risk-on proxy for tech stocks rather than an independent store of value. The billionaire Bridgewater founder, who says he keeps roughly 1% of his portfolio in bitcoin, argued the asset's traceability and modest market cap leave gold structurally better suited to reserve status.
Why it matters
Dalio's critique lands on two long-running fault lines in the institutional bitcoin debate. The privacy argument: every BTC transaction sits on a permanent public ledger, and blockchain analytics firms routinely cluster wallet addresses back to real-world entities, a level of visibility central banks have historically rejected for reserve holdings. The correlation argument: with 79% of bitcoin's 90-day price action explainable by Nasdaq moves, the diversification thesis that originally drew institutional allocators has weakened through 2025.
Market impact
Privacy-focused assets are the clearest beneficiary of this framing — zcash (ZEC) has rallied more than 800% since early 2025, while bitcoin is down over 10% on the year. Consensus Hong Kong panelists in February flagged institutional-grade privacy as a precondition for large-block adoption, a view Dalio's remarks reinforce rather than introduce. The structural read: until BTC either develops credible privacy layers at the base protocol or decouples meaningfully from US tech beta, the central-bank bid that long-term bulls model remains functionally capped.
Frequently asked questions
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Why does Ray Dalio think central banks won't hold bitcoin?
Dalio argues Bitcoin's fully transparent public ledger lets anyone trace wallet activity in real time, a level of visibility central banks have historically rejected for reserve holdings.
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How correlated is bitcoin with the Nasdaq right now?
The 90-day correlation coefficient between BTC and the Nasdaq stood at 0.89, translating to an R² of 0.79 — meaning roughly 79% of bitcoin's recent price action tracks tech-stock moves.
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Does Ray Dalio own any bitcoin?
Yes. Dalio has said he allocates roughly 1% of his portfolio to bitcoin, even as he continues to favor gold as a reserve asset.
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What is the privacy-focused alternative highlighted in the piece?
Zcash (ZEC) is cited as the clearest beneficiary of the privacy thesis, having rallied more than 800% since early 2025 while bitcoin is down over 10% on the year.
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What would change Dalio's view on bitcoin as a reserve asset?
Dalio's critique rests on two structural factors — on-chain privacy and Nasdaq correlation. Meaningful improvement in either, particularly credible privacy layers at the base protocol, would weaken his case for gold over BTC.
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