The $1B Claim Reshaping the Prediction Markets Fight

The American Gaming Association's running tally of tax revenue it says states and tribes have lost to prediction markets crossed $1 billion this week, and the lobby moved quickly to turn the number into a political weapon. AGA President Bill Miller took the figure to CNBC, framing it as money drained from education funds and community programs — a framing designed to bypass the dense jurisdictional arguments that have so far failed to move courts or the CFTC.

Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket operate under CFTC oversight at the federal level, allowing them to reach all fifty states, including those where traditional sportsbooks are banned. The platforms dismissed the billion-dollar figure outright — Kalshi called it "fake math from casinos" protecting a monopoly — while the Coalition for Prediction Markets said the AGA's underlying sources couldn't be verified.