CoinDesk
XRP holders are capitulating. The 90-day moving average of the token's realized profit-to-loss ratio has plunged to 0.38, according to data tracked by Glassnode — meaning for every $1 of losses investors are realising, they're booking just 38¢ in profit. Most coins changing hands onchain are now underwater.
Why it matters
The reversal from 2025's peak is sharp: at the height of that run, the same ratio hit 50, with profit-takers outnumbering loss-sellers by a staggering 50-to-1. A reading this far below 1 is widely treated as a hallmark of capitulation — the phase where exhausted holders throw in the towel after prolonged pain. The metric is one of the cleanest onchain proxies for "everyone who wanted to sell has sold," and while it doesn't pinpoint the exact bottom, it tends to cluster near exhaustion points in downtrends.
Market impact
XRP is trading around $1.11, down nearly 40% year-to-date and well off the July peak above $3.60, according to CoinDesk data. The capitulation read frames the current tape as a late-stage bear rather than a fresh leg lower — positioning is washed, the marginal seller is exhausted, and the next directional move will hinge on whether fresh bid emerges at these levels or the range breaks first.
Frequently asked questions
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What is XRP's current realized profit-to-loss ratio?
The 90-day moving average has plunged to 0.38, per Glassnode — meaning for every $1 of losses investors are realizing, they're taking just 38¢ in profit. Most coins trading onchain are underwater.
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How does the current ratio compare to XRP's 2025 peak?
At the 2025 peak, the same ratio hit 50, with profit-takers overwhelming loss-sellers by 50-to-1. The current 0.38 reading marks a sharp reversal from that euphoric state.
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What does capitulation mean for XRP's price outlook?
A realized profit-to-loss ratio far below 1 is widely seen as a hallmark of capitulation — exhausted holders selling after prolonged pain. It doesn't pinpoint the exact bottom but tends to cluster near exhaustion points in downtrends.
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How much has XRP fallen from its peak?
XRP trades around $1.11, down nearly 40% year-to-date and well below the July peak above $3.60, according to CoinDesk data.
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Is the XRP bear market in its final stages?
The capitulation read suggests the bear market may be in its final stages rather than breaking lower. Positioning looks washed and the marginal seller is exhausted, but the next move depends on whether fresh bid emerges at current levels.
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