Glassnode
The XRP/BTC ratio has compressed to 0.33 on the 90-day simple moving average, the weakest reading since August 2022, with the spot ratio contracting to roughly 0.00104, equivalent to $1 per 1,000 XRP. Each successive low in the ratio reflects a growing share of holders exiting at a loss, with profit-taking unable to offset the capitulation flow.
Why it matters
The ratio is a cleaner read on XRP's relative performance than USD pricing alone, because it strips out the beta both assets share against Bitcoin. A falling 90D-SMA signals that sellers are stepping in faster than buyers can absorb, and the gap to the prior 2022 trough is now thin enough that a retest of the cycle bottom is back on the table.
Market impact
Capitulation phases historically mark the point where the marginal seller is exhausted rather than where new bids emerge, so the signal is more about positioning than direction. The next inflection will come when the ratio stops printing lower lows on the 90D-SMA; until then, the path of least resistance for XRP/BTC remains lower.
Frequently asked questions
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What is the XRP/BTC ratio and why does it matter?
The XRP/BTC ratio measures XRP's price in terms of Bitcoin. It strips out the shared beta both assets carry against Bitcoin and gives a cleaner read on XRP's relative performance than USD pricing alone.
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Why is the 0.33 reading on the 90-day SMA significant?
It is the lowest 90D-SMA print since August 2022, putting the ratio within reach of its prior cycle low and signaling that sellers are stepping in faster than buyers can absorb.
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What does the current ratio level mean in dollar terms?
The spot ratio has compressed to roughly 0.00104, equivalent to about $1 of Bitcoin per 1,000 XRP.
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Does a falling ratio always lead to lower XRP prices?
No. The ratio captures relative, not absolute, performance. Capitulation phases historically mark seller exhaustion rather than the arrival of new bids, so the signal is about positioning more than direction.
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What would signal that the ratio has bottomed?
A sustained halt in lower lows on the 90D-SMA, combined with spot price stabilizing rather than compressing further, would mark the first credible inflection after the current capitulation stretch.
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