Ray Dalio warns US equities could return -5% to -10%
The Bridgewater founder framed the call as the natural endpoint of a debt cycle plus an AI-led concentration trade — and told investors diversification, not the megacaps, is the safer bet for the…
Macro events that move crypto — central bank rate decisions, inflation prints, banking stress, and global risk shifts.
The Bridgewater founder framed the call as the natural endpoint of a debt cycle plus an AI-led concentration trade — and told investors diversification, not the megacaps, is the safer bet for the…
Strong labor data is tightening every channel crypto needs loose — and Warsh's hawkish first FOMC just put the rate-cut trade on ice through year-end.
Japan's carry-trade unwind was fully priced, the BOJ softened it with a bond-buying commitment, and Bitcoin held near $66K.
Roughly a fifth of global oil flows through the 33-km chokepoint — any sustained closure pushes crude and risk assets sharply higher on supply fears.
Governor Abbott's June 10 directive to ERCOT and the PUC flips the state's decade-long incentive model and could become the regulatory template for every other state chasing AI capacity.
Roughly a fifth of the world's oil transits the strait — even a credible threat of closure pushes crude and risk assets sharply, and any sustained closure would hit global energy supply chains and…
Strategy's preferred-share product breaks its $100 peg for the first time, half the BTC supply is underwater, and 243 straight days of fear on the index — yet Morgan Stanley's 14bp ETH and SOL ETF…
A weekly round-up finds miners still underwater, Ethereum pushing Glamsterdam on devnets, and Europe's MiCA transition closing on July 1 — three timelines colliding on policy, code, and capital.
The on-chain and macro setups — 50% of BTC supply underwater, the 200-week moving average, PMI expansion — are the cleanest accumulation read this cycle, though a dip into the $50Ks isn't off the…
Oil front-month futures finished Jun 18 at $76.60, leaving WTI in a multi-week range. The cross-asset lens is the read: macro energy costs feed into rate path expectations that ultimately steer risk…
Brent settled near $79.85 and tankers cleared the Strait for the first time in weeks, but a dot plot showing 9 of 18 Fed officials now expect a rate hike pushed DXY to a one-year high and drove BTC…
The index briefly topped into Greed on January 15 with BTC near $97,923 and has spent the rest of the year sitting in Fear — a stretch of persistent caution unusual for a bull cycle.
BTC sits just below $62,400 with $450M of longs liquidated in 24 hours, while Strategy's STRC preferred trades below par and miners near $78K cost basis are starting to look like forced sellers.
The peg slippage is the macro signal: even a microcap preferred-like instrument from a balance-sheet BTC proxy is repricing risk-off, while the clipper campaign is the on-device reminder that…
The same cohort of metrics that called the 2019 top — Google Trends, Coinbase app rank, YouTube subs and views, Twitter followers — are all rolling over together, and there is no looser-money…
At $78,000 to produce a single coin against a $62,500 market price, roughly a fifth of miners are now unprofitable — and publicly traded miners offloaded 32,000 BTC in Q1 alone to cover costs.
Deribit flow into out-of-the-money puts hit strikes from $61,500 to $52,000 over a 48-hour window — a hedge trade that also reads as a directional bet while a hawkish Fed, persistent ETF outflows and…
The chart floor at $59K–$60K is now the level that matters; a break opens the door to the $45K target some traders are already calling, while the altseason thesis quietly falls apart.
The $80 billion supplemental request would sit on top of the FY2026 base budget, and a no-pass scenario forces the Pentagon into fresh stopgap funding — the third continuing-resolution cycle in two…
The hawkish dot plot grabbed the headlines; the substance was two quiet signals — AI productivity as a disinflation force and a trimmed-mean inflation rebuild — that point to a structurally looser…