Macro events that move crypto — central bank rate decisions, inflation prints, banking stress, and global risk shifts.
The pitch hinges on a dovish Fed clearing $1.20 resistance, with Polymarket pricing 70% odds of that catalyst by month-end. Both bull and bear cases map to specific levels the chart already respects.
The MPC's unanimous hold keeps the BoE on watch as services inflation and wage growth stay sticky, leaving the door open for a 2026 cut if price pressures continue to ease.
Bitcoin barely budged at $63,915 while a hawkish FOMC dissent, $286M in liquidations, and an 8% overnight oil spike erased Monday's calm across equities, leaving crypto's relative resilience as the…
It is the first three-way dissent in the same direction since September 2016, and it lands on a market where Treasuries out-yield BTC's own carry and spot volume is at a six-year low.
A 9-3 hold keeps policy unchanged through July, but the dissent count and ETF flow reversal hint at a market positioning for a September pivot.
Prices barely moved on the day, yet roughly 90,000 traders got cleared: leverage underneath flat tape tells you positioning was the trade, not direction.
The rate decision itself was expected. The three dissents in favour of a hike weren't, and they reset the odds on the timing of the first cut just as BTC dominance grinds toward 57%.
Four desks read the same 3.5%-3.75% hold differently: one calls it the cycle's worst outcome for digital assets, another calls it already priced in, and a third points to September as the real test.
The president's framing pairs AI leadership with export controls, signaling that the next phase of the US-China tech race is policy, not just chips.
The equity-crypto decoupling is the real story: bitcoin and ether shrugged off a $797B megacap tech wipeout and Korea's record two-day decline, with weekly softness in alts looking more like thin…
Downside protection is gone while $5B in upside options sits exposed to whatever the Fed delivers, and long-term holders are now the only wall under $64,000.
The former Fed governor's read reframes the policy debate: with 42 days of market-driven tightening already in the tape, the FOMC's next decision is about validating or pushing back on the curve…
A trillion-dollar single-session wipe is the kind of move that forces pension funds and retail alike to reassess how much equity risk they're still holding.
The dissent is the signal: three FOMC voters wanted a hike at the same meeting the chair kept policy on hold, with the committee citing Middle East energy shocks as the reason inflation stays above…
A 78% haircut on a Goldman-issued structured note tied to Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) crystallises the gap between equity-style upside bets and the credit risk underneath the bitcoin-treasury…
The Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged, extending the pause as inflation and labor data keep policymakers in a holding pattern ahead of the next move.
A sixth straight pause is the easy headline; the harder read is whether Chair Kevin Warsh uses the press conference to walk back forward guidance and the dot plot that markets have anchored to for…
The 29% FedWatch odds of a July hike look about right: the more useful signal is the 2-year yield pushing the Fed funds rate toward 4.25%, which is the level the market wants by December.
The federally chartered digital asset bank says the proposed payment account would leave crypto-native banks under permanent scrutiny, not the level playing field Waller's framework promised.
For only the second time on record, 2-year yields pay more than the 3-month futures basis, and the entire off-chain stack reads downstream of that one spread.
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