TheBlock
A new report estimates that American users secretly accounted for as much as $34 billion in wagering activity on offshore prediction markets, despite those platforms operating outside US regulatory jurisdiction. The figure, if accurate, would represent one of the largest documented instances of US retail financial activity flowing to unregulated offshore venues.
Why it matters
Prediction markets occupy a contested regulatory space in the United States, where the CFTC has historically treated event contracts as derivatives subject to federal oversight. Platforms such as Polymarket, which is domiciled offshore and technically blocks US users, have nonetheless attracted significant American participation according to the report. The scale of the figure — $34 billion — reframes what regulators and policymakers have largely treated as a niche activity into a mainstream capital flow question.
Market impact
The report lands at a moment when US lawmakers and the CFTC are actively debating whether to create a formal domestic framework for prediction markets. A documented $34 billion in offshore leakage strengthens the hand of proponents arguing that prohibition drives volume abroad rather than eliminating it — the same argument that shaped the eventual regulation of online sports betting at the state level. Crypto-native prediction platforms that settle in stablecoins or on-chain assets stand to benefit most if a regulatory opening emerges.
Frequently asked questions
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Which platforms are linked to the $34 billion in US offshore prediction market activity?
The report does not name a single platform exclusively, but offshore venues such as Polymarket — which technically restricts US users — have been widely cited in the context of American participation in offshore event-contract markets.
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How does the $34B figure affect the US regulatory debate on prediction markets?
It strengthens the case for a formal domestic framework by demonstrating that prohibition routes capital offshore rather than eliminating demand, mirroring the argument that eventually led to state-level legalisation of online sports betting.
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What role do crypto and stablecoins play in offshore prediction market activity?
Many offshore prediction platforms settle contracts in stablecoins or on-chain assets, making transactions harder to track and easier to access for US users — positioning crypto-native venues as primary beneficiaries if US regulation opens the market.
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