Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Is Still Alive — Here's the Data

Despite the flood of narratives last year — ETF inflows, MicroStrategy accumulation, a potential strategic Bitcoin reserve — the four-year cycle has continued to play out almost to the week. Bitcoin topped on day 1,162 of its current cycle; the prior two cycles topped on days 1,059 and 1,168. That's within one week of historical precedent, regardless of the stories told around it.

One of the most common objections is that Bitcoin topped on apathy rather than euphoria this cycle, which supposedly breaks the pattern. The counter-argument: the S&P 500 produced multiple apathetic tops in the 1960s and early 1970s — some cycles only 11-15% above prior highs — and still delivered two-year bear markets. Topping without euphoria doesn't exempt an asset from the cycle; it just changes the emotional texture of the decline.