Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle remains structurally intact, argues analyst Benjamin Cowen in a new video walkthrough, and the timing data backs it up. The 2025 cycle peak landed on day 1,162 from the last low — within one week of the day 1,059 and day 1,168 marks set in the two prior cycles. That is a tighter fit than most "cycle is dead" narratives allow.
The bear-market bounce itself is also weaker than the comparable 2022 move: Bitcoin has rallied roughly 35–36% off the cycle low versus a ~46% bounce in 2022 after an identical 52% drawdown. Sixteen weeks into the current recovery without a new low, Cowen notes, sits inside the 19–25 week ranges set by 2014, 2018, and 2022 — not outside them.
Why it matters
The four-year cycle thesis says Bitcoin finds its cycle low in Q4 of the midterm year, not at a specific price. By that lens, the relevant next window is Q4 2026 — and Cowen frames 2018 as the most instructive analogue: BTC revisited the prior low in February, drifted sideways, then broke in Q4. He argues the "apathy top" of late 2025, rather than undermining the cycle, is precedented — the S&P 500's 1965–1973 stretch shows indexes topping on low-volatility grinds and still posting multi-year bear markets, with 12–15% upside follow-throughs that still resolved into 50% drawdowns.
The argument against a broken cycle is therefore structural: ETFs, MicroStrategy buying, and the strategic Bitcoin reserve discussion did not prevent a Q4 2025 top, did not prevent a ~52% drawdown, and have not produced a stronger-than-prior bounce. Cowen also pushes back on the "S&P 500 at all-time highs means BTC is safe" framing — 2018 saw equities at highs while Bitcoin printed its first drop to $6K.
Market impact
Stablecoin dominance (USDT + USDC) has followed the typical midterm-year pattern: a weekly close below the 21-week EMA, then a snap-back above it — the same fakeout that preceded 2022's continuation lower. Cowen reads that as evidence the summer months typically weaken BTC, with the more meaningful low arriving later in the year.
He stops short of a price target, but the 2018 template implies a retest of the prior low around the $60K region sometime in Q4 2026 before any durable trend reversal can be confirmed. In the meantime, the working playbook is to rotate exposure — metals, energy, international equities, manufacturing — rather than fade every counter-trend bounce. A "this time is different" call, Cowen argues, requires evidence the data does not currently provide.
Frequently asked questions
-
What is Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle?
The thesis holds that Bitcoin finds a cycle low roughly every four years, aligned with the post-halving year cycle: lows in Q4 2014, Q4 2018, and Q4 2022. The next expected low by that lens is Q4 2026 — a time call, not a price call.
-
How close was the 2025 Bitcoin peak to prior cycles' timing?
The 2025 cycle peak landed on day 1,162 from the prior low, against day 1,059 and day 1,168 in the two prior cycles. That is within one week of the historical mark, which Cowen frames as tighter adherence than most "cycle is dead" narratives credit.
-
How does the current Bitcoin bear-market rally compare to 2022?
Bitcoin has bounced roughly 35–36% off the current cycle low versus a ~46% bounce in 2022 after an identical 52% drawdown. Sixteen weeks without a new low sits inside the 19–25 week ranges seen in 2014, 2018, and 2022.
-
What is the "apathy top" argument against the cycle being dead?
The 2025 top occurred on relative apathy rather than euphoria. Cowen cites the S&P 500's 1965–1973 stretch as precedent — equities ground 12–15% higher into new highs and still resolved into multi-year bears with 50% drawdowns. A low-volatility top does not preclude a bear market.
-
What is the implied base case for Bitcoin into year-end 2026?
Using 2018 as the template, BTC retested its prior low in February 2018, drifted sideways, then broke in Q4. The current analogue would imply a retest of the $60K region in Q4 2026 before any durable trend reversal can be confirmed — though no specific price target is set.
CoinDesk
CryptoSlate
CoinTelegraph
WuBlockchain
Lookonchain
WatcherGuru