BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes is calling $125,000 Bitcoin by year-end, anchoring the thesis in a structural liquidity surge rather than pure crypto momentum. He argues that new US banking leverage regulations, combined with state-level spending on military and AI infrastructure, will unleash a $4 trillion credit expansion — dwarfing any liquidity destruction that AI-driven efficiency might cause.
Hayes notes that liquidity indicators have already bottomed in sync with Bitcoin, which he reads as a leading signal that the next leg up is underway. If the credit boom materialises on the scale he projects, the macro tailwind would be one of the largest Bitcoin has ever traded into.
The call is aggressive but internally consistent: Hayes has historically tied his BTC targets to dollar liquidity cycles, and the regulatory and fiscal catalysts he cites are real policy shifts, not speculative…
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