CoinDesk
Bitcoin has held above $63,000 and gained roughly 6% this month even as AI-linked tech and semiconductor names have slumped, and analysts say Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision may matter less for crypto than for traditional risk assets. Traders are split: CME FedWatch shows markets pricing a 70% probability the Fed leaves rates unchanged and a 30% chance of a surprise 25-basis-point hike. Block Scholes research analyst Thahbib Rahman called it "one of the most uncertain FOMC meetings in years," noting only two Fed meetings since 2015 have seen markets more divided.
Why it matters
The uncertainty stems in part from Chair Kevin Warsh's reduced use of forward guidance, leaving investors with less clarity on the central bank's next move. Expectations have whipsawed over the past month as softer inflation data competed with renewed geopolitical tensions, higher oil prices and tariff risks. Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, framed the setup as a setup where stretched Nasdaq positioning meets BTC consolidating near multi-year lows, conditions under which softer cross-asset correlations tend to show up.
Market impact
Bitcoin's correlation with equities has weakened enough that this week's FOMC may have a more limited BTC impact than in previous periods of heightened policy uncertainty, Lunde wrote. The divergence is concrete: BTC is up about 6% for the month, the S&P 500 is little changed, and a basket of semiconductor stocks has dropped nearly 20%. Rahman said crypto sentiment has continued to improve despite the macro noise, adding that "anything remotely dovish from Warsh could lead to BTC's outperformance continuing." That makes the Fed's tone, not the rate decision itself, the swing variable for the chart this week.
Frequently asked questions
-
Why does the Fed decision matter less for Bitcoin this week?
K33's Vetle Lunde said BTC's correlation with equities has weakened and the Nasdaq entered July with stretched positioning while BTC consolidated near multi-year lows, conditions where softer cross-asset correlations tend to surface, limiting the FOMC's typical impact on BTC.
-
What are markets pricing for Wednesday's FOMC meeting?
CME FedWatch shows a 70% probability the Fed leaves rates unchanged and a 30% chance of a surprise 25-basis-point hike, one of the most divided pre-meeting splits since 2015 according to Block Scholes.
-
What did Block Scholes analyst Thahbib Rahman say about Warsh?
Rahman called the meeting "one of the most uncertain FOMC meetings in years" and wrote that "anything remotely dovish from Warsh could lead to BTC's outperformance continuing," citing Warsh's reduced use of forward guidance.
-
How much has Bitcoin diverged from equities and semis in July?
Bitcoin is up roughly 6% for the month and held above $63,000, the S&P 500 is little changed, and a basket of semiconductor stocks has fallen nearly 20%, according to Block Scholes data cited in the report.
-
Is Bitcoin decoupling from the Nasdaq structurally?
K33 framed it as a marginal, conditions-driven softening of correlations rather than a structural break: stretched Nasdaq positioning meeting BTC consolidation near multi-year lows tends to produce softer cross-asset links, but the report does not claim a permanent regime shift.
Crypto News
CoinTelegraph
Crypto Capital Venture
TheBlock
CryptoSlate
WatcherGuru
Benjamin Cowen