Bitcoin faces $83K test as yields rise, Soloway says

Gareth Soloway put two levels at the center of his Bitcoin view: $76,000 as near-term support and $82,800, or roughly $83,000, as the higher-high threshold that would strengthen the case for a new bull trend. He said a break below $76,000 could send Bitcoin toward $65,000 to $66,800 by year-end, while a confirmed higher high could put $90,000 in view. Soloway also said a publicly discussed $5 million position, held mostly through IBIT with some Bitcoin, had paid off.

Why it matters

His wider warning is about the cost of US debt. Soloway identified 5% on the 10-year Treasury yield as the key level to watch, linking a break above the October 2023 pivot to more fear in the bond market and among institutional investors. He also cited roughly $1 trillion in US interest payments and argued that yield-curve control could postpone financial stress without removing it.

That creates a two-sided case for Bitcoin. Higher rates give investors an alternative to risk assets while the financial system remains stable, but a deeper loss of confidence in fiat and the US financial system could strengthen Bitcoin's digital-gold role. Soloway's warning of a depression-like event around 2029 or 2030 is a long-range forecast, not a claim that such a collapse is underway.

Market impact

Technically, Soloway said Bitcoin remains in a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, so he does not yet classify the latest rally as a new bull market. A break above $82,800 would create the higher high he wants to see. A loss of $76,000 would shift his year-end map toward $66,800 or $65,000, while a breakout could put $90,000 on the table. He said he would become more willing to buy pullbacks only after that confirmation.

His market view extends beyond Bitcoin. He described the S&P 500 as near-term bullish while its trendline holds, but said a break below 7,400 would make him very bearish. AI-linked equities have pulled capital from crypto in his view, making the relationship between stocks and Bitcoin important for the next move.

Solana was his main altcoin watch, with support holding and a possible near-term move to $120-$122. He said passage of the Clarity Act could help selected altcoins, while citing strong moves in Zcash and NEAR as examples of project-specific strength. His highest-conviction year-end trade was Chinese equities through KWEB, not crypto. For the next cycle, he used a trendline model to point to roughly $160,000 for Bitcoin around early 2028, while stressing that his immediate crypto exposure remained limited.