Bitcoin Surges 25% to $78K as Treasury Buybacks Cut Yields
About $650M in spot ETF inflows and a roughly $4B short squeeze amplified the rally, but Bitcoin still competes with Treasuries offering returns near 5%.
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About $650M in spot ETF inflows and a roughly $4B short squeeze amplified the rally, but Bitcoin still competes with Treasuries offering returns near 5%.
The yield reversal gives risk assets a softer macro backdrop, while the 22% XRP upside call rests on a separate argument that Ripple remains undervalued.
Gold has gained 10% this month on the same debt fears, while BTC has lagged for nine straight months. The digital-gold hedge narrative is being stress-tested in real time.
BTC's own positioning reads the opposite of the macro tape: longs flipped bullish, funding hit a 20-month high.
Rising oil feeds inflation and reinforces expectations of tight central-bank policy, making Bitcoin's strength against falling stocks the key signal.
With September hike odds jumping to 43% from 23% on the same day, the real story isn't the hold, it's the market's read that the Fed is now behind the curve on the long end.
CME fed funds futures still price a 35% chance of a rate increase the afternoon of the decision, an unusual level of indecision that makes this a live, two-sided FOMC for risk.
Bitcoin is holding near $65K with the 10-year at 4.57%, but a heavier coupon mix on Aug. 5 could lift term premiums and squeeze BTC's zero-coupon bid.
A 2.85% 10-year JGB yield is dragging U.S. Treasuries back toward 4.5%, lifting the opportunity cost of holding BTC at the moment Fed cut bets had revived risk appetite.
The drop pairs a 10% drawdown from the May high with the largest single-week ETF outflow since January, and a global yield reset is siphoning the marginal bid from zero-risk assets.
When price drops without a volatility pop, it usually means the market is treating the move as orderly flow rather than panic.
Bloomberg is flagging rising bond yields as the most significant near-term threat to the AI-driven equity rally — a…
The 4.58% 10-year Treasury print and a 2008-era UK gilt level recast the macro tape in one session — rate-cut bets are gone and the market is now pricing nearly 50% odds of an actual Fed hike.
The Treasury complex is pricing something it hasn't priced since the LTCM era, and the rate shock is squeezing liquidity for risk assets including Bitcoin at the exact moment positioning looks…