CoinDesk
Bitcoin traded below $73,400, slipping beneath its 50-week simple moving average of $75,153 and reversing a breakout that had fueled bull-market calls in September. The decline marks a failed breakout, a pattern technical analysts often interpret as a sign of renewed seller dominance.
Why it matters
Galaxy Digital research head Alex Thorn had cited Bitcoin's September move above the average as evidence of a potential new bull run. His analysis found that the first weekly close above the indicator preceded bull runs in four of five completed bear markets. The exception was the 2021–22 cycle, when two brief reclaims preceded a deeper selloff.
The reversal comes alongside large outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, highlighting weak institutional demand. The U.S. Dollar Index also briefly topped 103, its highest level since March 2025. Dollar strength can weigh on the appeal of Bitcoin and other crypto assets.
Market impact
Market maker Wintermute said it remains cautious while BTC trades below the 50-week average, identifying $68,000 as the next level down and a reclaim of $80,000 as a reason to change its view.
LMAX Group strategist Joel Kruger offered a more optimistic scenario: if hawkish Federal Reserve expectations are already priced in, profit-taking on dollar positions could ease pressure on crypto. Fed commentary and Friday's U.S. producer price inflation report are tests of that view, while the conflict with Iran remains a potential influence on oil prices and inflation.
Separately, some investors worry that MSCI's exclusion of Strategy from its indexes could hinder its ability to finance Bitcoin purchases. Marex analysts said the company still holds 850,364 BTC and reported no Bitcoin sales, cautioning against equating index outflows with immediate spot-market selling.
Frequently asked questions
-
What Bitcoin price levels is Wintermute watching?
Wintermute identified $68,000 as the next level down and said a reclaim of $80,000 would change its cautious view.
-
How reliable has Bitcoin's 50-week moving average been as a bull-market signal?
Galaxy Digital's Alex Thorn found that the first weekly close above the average preceded bull runs in four of five completed bear markets. The 2021–22 cycle was the exception.
-
How are ETF flows and the dollar affecting Bitcoin's outlook?
Large spot Bitcoin ETF outflows highlight weak institutional demand. The Dollar Index briefly topped 103, and dollar strength can weigh on the appeal of Bitcoin and other crypto assets.
-
What could test the case for a Bitcoin recovery?
LMAX strategist Joel Kruger pointed to Federal Reserve commentary and Friday's U.S. producer price inflation report. The conflict with Iran is also a potential influence on oil prices and inflation.
-
Does Strategy's MSCI exclusion mean its Bitcoin will be sold?
Marex analysts cautioned against equating index outflows with immediate spot-market selling. They said Strategy holds 850,364 BTC and reported no Bitcoin sales.
Crypto News
WuBlockchain
CoinTelegraph
Glassnode
CryptoSlate