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Bitcoin never recorded a daily close below its realized price during this cycle, and aggregate NUPL stayed positive. Glassnode says that if BTC holds above the $77,000 True Market Mean, the June low would be the shallowest of the three bear-market lows in its comparison.
Why it matters
In the 2018–2019 and 2022–2023 bear markets, Bitcoin traded below realized price for months. This time, the June low remained above it. Yet the drawdown was not painless: the share of supply in profit fell to roughly its November 2022 low level. The difference was that aggregate NUPL, which tracks paper gains and losses across all coins, never turned negative. That does not mean every holder stayed in profit.
Glassnode places the largest long-term-holder supply cluster at $84,000–$85,000, but that concentration alone does not show that holders are profitable or ready to sell. Its mean MVRV price is $96,700, a level associated with the average holder’s profit returning to its long-term norm. Long-term-holder MVRV stayed above 1, while weekly realized profit remained a fraction of the amounts seen at the 2024 and 2025 market tops.
Market impact
The recovery has support from renewed demand: US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $1.3 billion in inflows over five days after two weeks of net outflows. Spot volume rose 121% from its August trough, though its seven-day average remained about 30% below the year-earlier level.
Glassnode identifies $95,000–$97,000 as the next major test, where options positioning and mean MVRV converge. Positive gamma was highest around $95,000 strikes on the report’s chart, while negative gamma built between spot and $92,000. A move below $84,000 would bring the $77,000 support reference back into focus; a sustained break above $95,000–$97,000 would test the overhead resistance cluster.
Frequently asked questions
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What made this Bitcoin bear-market drawdown different from earlier cycles?
Bitcoin never recorded a daily close below realized price, and aggregate NUPL stayed positive. In the 2018–2019 and 2022–2023 bear markets, BTC traded below realized price for months.
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Does positive aggregate NUPL mean every Bitcoin holder stayed in profit?
No. NUPL measures paper gains and losses across all coins. The share of supply in profit fell to roughly its November 2022 low level, even though aggregate NUPL never turned negative.
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Which Bitcoin price levels does Glassnode identify as important?
Glassnode identifies $84,000–$85,000 as the largest long-term-holder supply cluster, $77,000 as the True Market Mean, and $96,700 as the mean MVRV price.
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How did ETF flows and spot volume change during the recovery?
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $1.3 billion in inflows over five days after two weeks of net outflows. Spot volume rose 121% from its August trough, while its seven-day average remained about 30% below a year earlier.
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What price moves would challenge or support the recovery?
A move below $84,000 would put the $77,000 True Market Mean back in view. A sustained break through $95,000–$97,000 would test the overhead resistance cluster.
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