Polymarket, the crypto-based prediction market built on Polygon, now controls roughly 93% of the global political prediction market, per latest volume data. The figure underlines how thoroughly the venue has lapped rivals Kalshi and PredictIt in the segment most exposed to US election coverage.
Why it matters
Prediction markets spent the last cycle framed as a niche curiosity. The 93% concentration flips that framing: the political betting category increasingly means Polymarket, full stop. The platform's exchange-design status with the CFTC, plus deep liquidity on the headline races, has turned it into the canonical price-discovery venue for event-contract traders.
Market impact
With this much share, Polymarket's screen prices get cited by cable news desks, X timelines, and increasingly by tradfi desks hedging around policy outcomes. Rival venues still print volume, but the marginal trader has already routed there. The dominance is the story; the volume numbers are downstream of it.
Frequently asked questions
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What share of the political prediction market does Polymarket hold?
Roughly 93%, per the latest volume data shared on the platform's dominance metric.
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Who are Polymarket's main competitors in political betting?
US-regulated rivals Kalshi and PredictIt remain the largest competitors, along with smaller offshore event-contract venues.
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Is Polymarket regulated in the US?
Polymarket holds CFTC exchange-designation status, though its operations and user-access rules have drawn prior enforcement scrutiny from US regulators.
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What blockchain does Polymarket run on?
Polymarket is built on Polygon, a layer-2 Ethereum scaling network.
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Why does market share concentration matter for prediction markets?
When one venue dominates a category, its quotes become the canonical price discovery reference, shaping hedging flows, media citations, and how the category is framed publicly.
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