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Bitcoin never closed below its realized price during the current bear market, and the June 2026 low stayed above that aggregate cost basis. Price is also above the True Market Mean near $77,000. If it holds there, the June low would be the shallowest bear-market bottom in Glassnode’s comparison set dating back to 2017.
Why it matters
In the 2018–19 and 2022–23 cycles, Bitcoin traded below realized price for months. This time, Net Unrealized Profit/Loss stayed positive throughout, even as the share of supply in profit fell to roughly the level seen at the November 2022 bottom. That points to narrower aggregate losses and less structural pressure to sell, though it does not rule out further downside.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $1.3 billion in inflows over the five trading days since the squeeze began, reversing two weeks of net outflows. Exchange spot volume rose 121% from its August trough. Unlike earlier volume spikes in late 2025 and mid-2026, which accompanied falling prices, the August expansion coincided with a rally. The seven-day average nevertheless remains about 30% below year-ago levels.
Market impact
Bitcoin faces a long-term-holder supply cluster at $84,000–$85,000, with mean MVRV price at $96,700 as the next major resistance. Deribit options positioning shows positive gamma near $95,000 and negative gamma between spot and $92,000, a setup Glassnode says may accelerate moves in the lower band and slow them near the mean MVRV zone.
Holding above $84,000 would keep the path to $96,700 open. A fall below it would put $77,000 back in play; losing that level would weaken the shallow-bear-market case. Weekly realized profit-taking remains well below 2024 and 2025 peaks despite nearly all short-term holders being in profit. A sharp rise in profit-taking would be a sign that recent buyers are selling into the recovery.
Frequently asked questions
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What does it mean that Bitcoin never closed below realized price?
Realized price represents the aggregate cost basis of Bitcoin supply. The market never closed below it during this bear market, unlike in the 2018–19 and 2022–23 cycles.
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Which Bitcoin price level would weaken the shallow-bear-market thesis?
A break below the True Market Mean near $77,000 would undercut the case that the June low was a shallow bear-market bottom.
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How much did U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attract during the recovery?
They recorded about $1.3 billion in inflows over five trading days after two weeks of net outflows.
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Where are the key resistance levels for Bitcoin?
A long-term-holder supply cluster sits at $84,000–$85,000. The next major resistance is the mean MVRV price at $96,700.
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What would signal that recent Bitcoin buyers are taking profits?
A rise in weekly realized profit-taking toward levels seen at the 2024 and 2025 tops would suggest recent buyers are selling into the rally.
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