Glassnode
Bitcoin long-term holders remained in profit throughout this cycle, with LTH-MVRV bottoming above 1 and climbing again. The metric has not dropped below 1, the level associated with the cohort being underwater.
Why it matters
In every bear market since at least 2015, LTH-MVRV fell below 1 at the cycle low. This cycle breaks that pattern, indicating long-term holders have so far avoided aggregate losses by this measure.
Market impact
The metric's recovery above its cycle low points to renewed resilience among long-term holders. It does not establish that prices cannot fall further, but whether LTH-MVRV remains above 1 is a key signal to watch for changes in this cohort's position.
Frequently asked questions
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What does an LTH-MVRV reading below 1 indicate?
It indicates long-term holders are underwater by this measure, with their aggregate position below its cost basis.
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How did LTH-MVRV behave at prior bear-market lows?
Since at least 2015, it fell below 1 at each prior bear-market cycle low.
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What is different about LTH-MVRV this cycle?
It bottomed above 1, so long-term holders remained in profit by this measure throughout the cycle.
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What is LTH-MVRV doing after its cycle low?
It is climbing again after bottoming above 1.
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Does LTH-MVRV above 1 rule out further Bitcoin price declines?
No. The reading indicates long-term holder profitability by this measure, but it does not rule out further price declines.
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