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Bitcoin's outlook remains bullish, but the asset needs to close above its 365-day moving average at roughly $81,700 before a new bull market can be confirmed, on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant said in a Friday report. The call comes after a 24% two-week rally stalled, leaving the price trading in a $76,000-$82,000 range and currently hovering near $77,000.
"The trend is still constructive, but a wall of resistance stands in the way," Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant's head of research, said in the report.
Why it matters
Moreno maps resistance in layers. The nearest and heaviest sits between $77,100 and $80,200, where long-term holders sold as much as 539,000 BTC over a 30-day period this year. Above that, the 365-day moving average near $81,700 is the key line: historically, bitcoin bull markets have officially started when price closes above it. A further ceiling waits at $83,600, based on CryptoQuant's 3x Metcalfe band, which models value from network activity, with additional profit-taking pressure possible around $88,700, the upper bound of the firm's trader realized price model.
Market impact
On the downside, Moreno identifies support at $70,000, the 200-day moving average, and a deeper cushion between $62,000 and $65,000, where long-term holders bought about 476,000 BTC this year. The levels have tracked well in recent cycles: the 3x band stood at $138,000 when bitcoin printed its $126,000 all-time high in October 2025, and the 2x band sat near price when bitcoin first crossed $100,000 in December 2024.
"The overall picture remains bullish; Bitcoin simply needs to digest the overhead supply and break its valuation ceilings before a new leg up can develop," Moreno concluded. A decisive close above $81,700 would confirm the new bull market, while failure keeps bitcoin range-bound.
Frequently asked questions
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What price level confirms a new Bitcoin bull market, according to CryptoQuant?
CryptoQuant says a clear close above the 365-day moving average, currently around $81,700, would confirm a new bull market. Historically, bitcoin bull markets have officially started when price closes above this average.
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Why is the $77,100-$80,200 zone important for Bitcoin?
Long-term holders sold as much as 539,000 BTC over a 30-day period this year in that range, making it what CryptoQuant's Julio Moreno calls the nearest and heaviest on-chain supply resistance above the current price.
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Where are Bitcoin's key support levels if the price drops?
CryptoQuant sees support around $70,000, the 200-day moving average, and a deeper zone between $62,000 and $65,000, where long-term holders bought about 476,000 BTC this year.
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What is CryptoQuant's 3x Metcalfe band and why does $83,600 matter?
The 3x Metcalfe band estimates bitcoin's value from network activity such as active addresses. It places the next resistance at $83,600, and the model marked key levels in prior cycles, including $138,000 before bitcoin's $126,000 all-time high in October 2025.
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What happens if Bitcoin fails to break $81,700?
CryptoQuant's Julio Moreno says bitcoin could keep trading in a range instead of starting a new leg up, though the overall picture remains bullish while the market digests overhead supply.
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