CoinDesk
Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average is at $79,495, just above its 100-day average at $79,493, while the 100-day is nearing the 200-day average at $79,539. If the 100-day crosses above the 200-day, the averages will form a bullish 50-day, 100-day, 200-day sequence for the first time since 2025.
Why it matters
Moving averages help traders assess trend direction across different time frames. A fully bullish alignment would indicate that shorter-term prices have strengthened relative to longer-term averages, supporting the view that Bitcoin’s recovery over the past three months has endured.
Bitcoin rose more than 40% to $87,000 in the third quarter. Its advance has recently stalled near $85,000 as the U.S. dollar strengthened. Giottus CEO Vikram Subburaj said the crossover would confirm that the recovery has endured, while warning that it would not guarantee further gains.
Market impact
Past alignments show why traders may treat the signal as confirmation, not a forecast. An alignment formed in October 2020 while BTC traded around $13,600 and held until May 2021, when Bitcoin had reached a then-record above $64,000. An alignment confirmed in November 2023 remained in place until May 2024, during which Bitcoin more than doubled from roughly $35,000 to $73,000.
Other signals were shorter-lived. The June 2025 alignment lasted 97 days as Bitcoin rose modestly from about $106,000 to $112,000; a June 2024 setup lasted 20 days before Bitcoin fell about 10%. Subburaj identified Bitcoin’s ability to stay above its 50-day average, particularly during a correction, as the next key test.
Frequently asked questions
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What would confirm Bitcoin’s bullish moving-average alignment?
The 100-day moving average needs to cross above the 200-day, with the 50-day already above both. That would put the three averages in bullish order.
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Why are Bitcoin’s moving averages close to crossing?
The 50-day average is at $79,495 and the 100-day at $79,493, while the 200-day is at $79,539. The rising 100-day is nearing the 200-day.
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What is the next key test for Bitcoin after the crossover?
Giottus CEO Vikram Subburaj said the key test is whether Bitcoin can remain above its 50-day average, particularly during a correction.
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Have past bullish alignments always led to major Bitcoin gains?
No. Some preceded major rallies, while the June 2025 alignment lasted 97 days with modest gains and a June 2024 setup lasted 20 days before Bitcoin fell about 10%.
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How did Bitcoin perform during the third quarter?
Bitcoin rose more than 40% to $87,000 in the third quarter. Its advance later stalled near $85,000 as the U.S. dollar strengthened.
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