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Bitcoin is still holding above the 1-year and 2-year exponential moving averages, and Jurrien Timmer and Matt Hougan both lean constructive even after a ~7% drawdown from local highs.
The weekly 20 EMA at $1.34 and 50 EMA at $1.52 mark the levels traders are watching for a break from the range.
The crossover would strengthen the recovery signal, but past alignments have produced outcomes ranging from major rallies to brief gains and losses.
The bullish case now depends more on Bitcoin holding its 200-day average, while historical wins from this setup come with notable failed-breakout risk.
The shift removes a long-running technical headwind and puts sustained support above the averages at the center of the uptrend case.
Weekly closes above the 50-week average matter more than a single move, while a retreat toward $70K would still fit the 2023 bottoming pattern.
The case rests on time, not a vertical breakout: consolidation could let the 50-week average flatten while the 200-week average keeps rising.
The 200-day SMA at $69,005 is the key line: a sustained hold could validate a trend shift, while a decisive break below it would weaken the bullish case.
Bitcoin has just touched its 50-month moving average for the fourth time in its history, and each prior touch has…
The 200-week moving average has been tapped, but a confirmed break above the 200-day — now near $77.8K — is the historical signal that the bear is over.
The 200-day SMA at $82,455 and the 200-day EMA at $82,027 now form the same resistance band — a clean reclaim flips the long-term trend back to bullish, a rejection hands control back to the bears.
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