CoinDesk
Bitcoin fell to $68,000, its lowest since August, as a red-hot Anthropic IPO drained liquidity from crypto and a broad risk-off wave swept across markets. The listing is targeting as much as $64.4 billion, and its subscription books drew six times more orders than shares available. Analysts are split on the driver: Xapo Bank CEO Seamus Rocca blames the IPO cash grab, while Risk Dimensions' Mark Connors and Hyperium Decimus' Chris Sullivan see a wholesale deleveraging of the AI trade, pointing to short open interest above the August peak, outflows from BlackRock's IBIT, and the prospect of a 50-basis-point rate hike within 30 days.
Why it matters
"When an IPO of this scale comes to market, the lure of a quick return is strong, and liquid assets like bitcoin are often the first source of funding when investors scramble for allocations," Rocca said. The closest precedent is SpaceX's $75 billion listing in June: bitcoin dropped 19% in the 50 days before it went public, hit a low 18 days later, then rallied 28% by day 100. Strive CEO Matt Cole argues a repeat would put bitcoin near $90,000 by late February, though the SpaceX-era decline also coincided with Strategy sale concerns, muddying the comparison.
Market impact
Pressure is stacking from several directions at once. MSCI's decision to remove Strategy from its global benchmarks could force index-tracking funds to sell shares in the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, while metals are trading lower alongside crypto, a sign investors are cutting risk across the board rather than reacting to bitcoin-specific news. The timing of the selloff, around 11 p.m. Eastern, suggests neither the Nvidia scandal nor the MSCI news was the precise trigger. Rocca's counterpoint: bitcoin has held up relatively well given how much bad news markets have absorbed.
Frequently asked questions
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Why is Bitcoin falling while Anthropic's IPO is in the spotlight?
Anthropic's subscription books drew six times more orders than shares available, and investors are selling liquid assets like bitcoin to free up cash for allocations, according to Xapo Bank CEO Seamus Rocca.
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How much is Anthropic raising in its IPO?
The listing is looking to raise as much as $64.4 billion, which would make it the largest public listing in history by a wide margin.
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What happened to Bitcoin after the SpaceX IPO?
Bitcoin fell 19% in the 50 days before SpaceX's $75 billion listing in June, hit a low 18 days later, then staged a recovery to stand 28% above its listing price by day 100. Strive's Matt Cole says a repeat would put BTC near $90,000 by late February.
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What role are IBIT outflows and short positions playing in the selloff?
Hyperium Decimus' Chris Sullivan cited short open interest exceeding the August peak, large outflows from BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust, extreme fear in crypto markets, and the prospect of a 50-basis-point rate hike within 30 days.
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Why does MSCI removing Strategy from its indexes matter for Bitcoin?
The removal could force index-tracking funds to sell shares in Strategy, the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, adding selling pressure on top of the IPO-driven liquidity drain.
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