CryptoSlate
The Federal Reserve publishes the minutes of its June 16–17 meeting on Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET, and the document will either validate Bitcoin's week-long recovery or pull its foundation out from under it. Bitcoin traded near $64,000 on Tuesday, up almost 11% from the 21-month low below $58,000 set on July 1, and swung more than $3,400 between $61,250 and $64,659 the day before. The bounce began with Thursday's US jobs report, which showed employers added 57,000 positions in June, roughly half of what economists expected.
Why it matters
Traders bought the rebound on a single macro assumption: a weakening US labor market limits how long the Fed can stay hawkish. The June meeting gave crypto little to work with at the time, as officials held rates at 3.50%–3.75%, stripped earlier hints that cuts could come soon, and shifted the median 2026 projection toward at least one additional hike. Bitcoin spent the following two weeks grinding toward its low as markets priced tighter policy for longer. Beyond the headline miss, the BLS revised April and May payrolls down a combined 74,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate's dip to 4.2% came only because roughly 720,000 people left the labor force, pulling participation down to 61.5%. CME FedWatch now implies about a 76% chance the Fed holds at its July 28–29 meeting, with roughly 40% odds of an increase by December.
Market impact
The minutes are the first full account of internal deliberations under Chair Kevin Warsh, and they will show whether officials shared labor-market concerns in mid-June, weeks before the jobs data that set the rally in motion. If they flagged softness, credit strain, or the risk of overtightening, the market's dovish shift gains support. If the discussion centered on persistent inflation and the conditions for another hike, the way Warsh framed the decision publicly, the rally loses its main pillar. From the ETF side, US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $223 million on Thursday, the largest daily inflow since May, ending a 10-day withdrawal streak that had drained $2.73 billion from the funds.
Frequently asked questions
-
When are the Fed minutes released and why do they matter for Bitcoin?
The Fed publishes minutes from its June 16–17 meeting on Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET. They are the first full account of deliberations under Chair Kevin Warsh and will show whether officials shared labor-market concerns before the soft June jobs report that sparked Bitcoin's 11% rebound.
-
How much has Bitcoin recovered and from what low?
Bitcoin traded near $64,000 on Tuesday, up almost 11% from the 21-month low below $58,000 set on July 1. On Monday alone it swung more than $3,400 between $61,250 and $64,659.
-
What did the June jobs report show that triggered the rally?
US employers added 57,000 positions in June, roughly half of what economists expected. The BLS also revised April and May payrolls down a combined 74,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate's dip to 4.2% came only because roughly 720,000 people left the labor force, pulling participation down to 61.5%.
-
What are traders pricing in for the next Fed meetings?
CME FedWatch implies about a 76% chance the Fed holds rates at its July 28–29 meeting, with roughly 40% odds of an increase by December. The June meeting held rates at 3.50%–3.75% and shifted the median 2026 projection toward at least one additional hike.
-
What risks could undo the Bitcoin rebound after the minutes?
US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $223M on Thursday, ending a 10-day streak that had drained $2.73B, but products have still shed nearly $8.5B since early May. Whale-sized deposits to exchanges reached about 49,000 BTC as price reclaimed $60,000, and dealer gamma clusters at $60,000 and $62,000, levels that can pin price…
CoinTelegraph
WatcherGuru
Crypto Capital Venture
WuBlockchain
CoinDesk
TheBlock