CryptoSlate
Bitcoin’s supply last moved at least one year ago reached 63.3% on Sept. 18, up from 62.32% a month earlier. The shift came as the one-to-two-year band rose to 14.57% from 13.52%, while the six-to-12-month band fell to 17.53% from 19.10%.
Why it matters
Those paired moves are consistent with coins crossing the one-year age boundary simply by remaining unmoved. HODL waves classify unspent transaction outputs by their last on-chain movement, so they show age distribution rather than investor intent. A transfer between wallets controlled by the same owner or custodian can reset an output's age, while lost coins can remain in older bands without representing deliberate holding.
The data therefore supports a limited conclusion: Bitcoin’s supply grew older and the share moved within one month declined to 7.03% from 7.30%. It does not establish that buyers recently accumulated coins or that available-for-sale supply tightened.
Market impact
The one-year HODL reading is best treated as an aging signal, not a standalone bullish catalyst. Confirming a fresh-accumulation thesis would require entity-adjusted balance changes, exchange flows and spending behavior to point in the same direction.
The distinction matters because gross cohort shares do not reveal whether units changed hands, moved internally or simply stayed dormant. Coinbase’s November 2025 warning about an internal wallet migration illustrated how large on-chain volumes can occur without reflecting market selling, although that episode is not identified as the cause of the current shift.
Frequently asked questions
-
What drove Bitcoin’s one-year HODL share to 63.3%?
The increase was consistent with coins crossing the one-year age boundary while remaining unmoved. The one-to-two-year band rose as the six-to-12-month band declined.
-
Does the HODL wave prove that investors recently accumulated Bitcoin?
No. HODL waves measure the age of unspent transaction outputs, not investor intent, ownership or recent buying. Fresh accumulation needs corroboration from other on-chain measures.
-
Why did the one-to-two-year Bitcoin band increase?
Coins that last moved roughly a year ago can enter the one-to-two-year bracket by staying still long enough to cross the age threshold.
-
What can make Bitcoin supply look younger without a sale?
A transfer between wallets controlled by the same owner or custodian can reset an output’s movement clock. Such activity may make coins appear young without changing beneficial ownership.
-
Which data could confirm a fresh Bitcoin accumulation trend?
Entity-adjusted balance changes, exchange flows and spending behavior would need to align. The HODL-wave increase alone does not measure available-for-sale supply or liquid-supply tightening.
WuBlockchain
Lookonchain
CoinTelegraph
Whale Alert
CoinDesk
Crypto News
WatcherGuru