Bitcoin's M2 playbook is broken — debt is outpacing money supply and $76K won't hold.

US M2 reached $22.7 trillion in March 2026, up 4.6% year over year — yet Bitcoin spent most of Q1 unable to hold above $76,000, the resistance level Real Vision's Jamie Coutts flagged on CryptoQuant's Unbiased podcast. The old correlation between global liquidity expansion and Bitcoin outperformance has quietly stopped working.

The reason, per Coutts, is a plumbing problem. US public debt closed Q4 2025 at over $38.5 trillion, growing 6.3% year over year — outpacing M2 by nearly two percentage points. The debt-to-M2 ratio now sits at roughly 1.70x, a level with no modern precedent in an ostensibly accommodative environment. The Treasury General Account held ~$1 trillion at the Fed in April, draining reserves from the banking system even as broad money ticked higher. Reserve balances fell to $2.9 trillion in the Fed's April 22 release, down ~$355 billion year over year.

The FOMC held…