TheBlock
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan told clients on Monday that the debate over whether bitcoin has bottomed is the wrong question for long-term investors. The right one, he wrote, is whether the cycle top is still ahead — and on that score, the three research desks that have weighed in are closer to consensus than the headline disagreement suggests.
Hougan's memo walks through bottom calls from Galaxy Digital, NYDIG, and Standard Chartered at a time when BTC trades near $67,000 after a bounce from multi-month lows. Galaxy's 13-condition scorecard had only four of its indicators fully triggered as of June 8, anchoring a base-case bottom range of $40,000 to $46,000 with a wider $30,000-to-$54,000 spread. NYDIG said the pullback has the shape of a cyclical low but is missing the outright capitulation that marked past troughs, noting that institutional demand may have structurally changed the cycle — meaning the bottom could already be in. Standard Chartered reversed its own February call, marking the bottom at $59,000 and lifting its year-end target to $100,000, citing a prospective U.S.–Iran deal and the SpaceX IPO as near-term catalysts that would absorb ETF-driven selling.
Why it matters
The three calls diverge on price and timing, but converge on a shared structure: all three expect a bottom this year, expect it to land before any new top, and expect another bull cycle to follow. Hougan's read is that long-term investors should anchor on that second question — the top — because the long-term drivers (rising government debt, inflation hedging demand, eroding trust in centralized institutions, and broader institutional access) are intact and arguably stronger than in prior cycles. He flags quantum risk and regulatory retrenchment as the threats that could break that thesis, but argues the current setup "feels better than it did during any other crypto winter." The March memo reiterating a $1M bitcoin-vs-gold call sits as the longer-horizon frame underneath the bottom debate.
Frequently asked questions
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What is Bitwise's Matt Hougan saying about the bitcoin bottom?
Hougan argues that asking whether bitcoin has bottomed is the wrong question for long-term investors. The right question, he wrote, is whether the cycle top is still ahead — and on that score, the three research desks reviewing the market are closer to consensus than the headline disagreement suggests.
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What are Galaxy, NYDIG, and Standard Chartered forecasting for bitcoin?
Galaxy's 13-condition scorecard had four indicators fully triggered as of June 8, anchoring a base-case bottom of $40K–$46K with a wider $30K–$54K range. NYDIG said the pullback looks like a cyclical low but lacks past capitulation, and the bottom may already be in. Standard Chartered marked the bottom at $59K and…
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Why does Hougan think long-term bitcoin drivers are still intact?
He points to rising government debt, inflation hedging demand, eroding trust in centralized institutions, and broader institutional access as structural drivers that remain in place and are arguably stronger than in prior cycles, despite the recent drawdown.
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What risks could break the long-term bitcoin thesis?
Hougan flags quantum risk and regulatory retrenchment as the two main threats that could challenge the long-term bull case, even as he argues the current setup feels better than during any other crypto winter.
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What was Standard Chartered's previous bitcoin call before reversing?
Standard Chartered cut its year-end forecast in February when BTC traded near $67,000, citing a deteriorating macro backdrop and ETF selling pressure. It reversed course last week, marked the bottom at $59,000, and pointed to a prospective U.S.–Iran deal and the SpaceX IPO as catalysts that would absorb ETF-driven…
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