BTC hits $81K but realized profits are peaking — sell-the-news risk is rising.

Bitcoin has recovered to $81,000, but on-chain data shows realized profits peaking at the same time — a combination that has historically preceded distribution phases. The $20K bounce from recent lows looks significant in isolation; in context of the broader drawdown from cycle highs, it represents a partial retracement, not a trend reversal.

Analysts across multiple frameworks are reading the move cautiously. Elliott Wave traders see it as a corrective wave, Wyckoff practitioners flag potential redistribution, and Fibonacci technicians note the price is testing a key expansion level. On-chain, the profit-realization spike is the metric to watch: when holders sell into strength at scale, it can flip momentum quickly.

The macro setup — a market still technically in a bear phase — means the burden of proof sits with the bulls. A clean hold above $81K with declining sell pressure would…