Crypto News
Bitcoin's network activity index crossed above its 365-day moving average for the first time since December 2024, a threshold CryptoQuant officially classifies as the start of a bull phase — the same crossover that preceded major advances in late 2024 and briefly in April 2025. Daily Bitcoin transactions have exceeded 800,000 in 2026, more than doubling from 2025 lows, and the composite index has climbed from roughly 3,320 to about 3,600. BTC trades near $62,500, down 2.5% over 24 hours but holding just above the 200-week SMA near $62,000 — a level that has historically functioned as long-cycle support. The backdrop: a partial Iran peace deal that has eased some of the geopolitical risk premium weighing on crypto risk appetite.
Why it matters
The accumulation data behind the headline number strengthens the case. Long-term holders now control more than 4.37 million BTC, up from roughly 2 million BTC in early 2024, and VanEck's supply analysis puts about 43% of circulating BTC dormant for more than three years — in the upper historical percentile. Illiquid supply at that scale has historically tightened available float ahead of price recoveries.
The caveat CryptoQuant itself flags is direct: the economic content of these transactions differs materially from prior high-activity periods. Sub-0.01 BTC transfers (roughly $630 at current prices) now account for about 80% of all daily on-chain activity, up from 44% in 2023. The surge is being driven almost entirely by OP_RETURN-based protocols — Runes, Ordinals, BRC-20 tokens, and data timestamping services — whose dust-value microtransactions inflate transaction counts without moving meaningful economic value.
Market impact
The mempool has expanded to roughly 128,000 pending transactions, its highest level since late February 2025, with congestion concentrated in the low-fee tier. CryptoQuant warns that sustained protocol-driven activity could eventually push fees higher for time-sensitive economic transactions, imposing real costs on genuine settlement throughput. That dynamic is worth tracking but has not yet reached the threshold where it meaningfully disrupts flows.
Frequently asked questions
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What does the Bitcoin network activity index crossing its 365-day MA actually signal?
CryptoQuant classifies a move above the 365-day moving average as the start of a bull phase. The same crossover preceded major advances in late 2024 and briefly in April 2025, making it a historically watched threshold for sustained upside.
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Why is sub-0.01 BTC activity now ~80% of daily transactions?
OP_RETURN-based protocols — Runes, Ordinals, BRC-20 tokens, and data timestamping services — generate large volumes of dust-value microtransactions that inflate on-chain counts without moving meaningful economic value, per CryptoQuant.
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How much BTC do long-term holders control and why does it matter?
Long-term holders now hold more than 4.37 million BTC, up from roughly 2 million in early 2024. VanEck estimates about 43% of supply is dormant over three years, tightening available float historically ahead of recoveries.
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What level is BTC defending and why is the 200-week SMA important?
BTC trades near $62,500, holding just above the 200-week SMA around $62,000. That moving average has historically functioned as long-cycle support during prior bear markets.
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Could Ordinals and Runes activity push Bitcoin fees higher?
CryptoQuant warns that sustained protocol-driven activity could drive fee increases for time-sensitive economic transactions. The mempool has expanded to roughly 128,000 pending transactions, its highest since late February 2025, though the disruption threshold has not been reached yet.
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