Bitcoin is back at $75K in mid-April, having swept its March high but failing to break out decisively. The price is pressing against the 100-day moving average — the same level that capped the January 15 local high — and has yet to register a durable daily close above it. With the next FOMC meeting scheduled for April 29 alongside a Bank of Japan rate decision, the setup into late April and early May is starting to echo the 2018 midterm-year playbook almost beat for beat.
Why it matters
The 2018 comparison is the spine of the bear case. That year, Bitcoin put in a February low near $6K, retested it with a higher low in late March and early April, then ripped into a lower high in late April before rolling over into a summer decline that ultimately broke the $6K floor by year-end. So far in 2026, the February low printed at roughly $60K and April has delivered a higher low, not a lower one — which is why some bulls are calling a durable bottom. But the video argues price-based capitulation is the wrong frame: time-based capitulation is. In 2018, $6K was tested repeatedly through the year before it finally broke, and the same dynamic — multiple touches of $60K across many months — is the more probable path in a midterm cycle.
Market impact
The technical levels above price are doing most of the work. The 100-day MA is the first gate; the 200-day MA is the next, and both 2018 and 2022 midterms saw Bitcoin rejected at the 200-day before the real leg down. Stablecoin dominance — USDT plus USDC — is hovering at its own bull market support band, the same configuration that preceded the 2022 expansion phase in stablecoins (which translated into selling pressure on BTC). Total crypto market cap has not yet swept its March high, another divergence flag. The window into late April and early May, coinciding with the FOMC, is the window where the video expects a lower high to print and a renewed test of $60K to begin.
Frequently asked questions
-
Why is the 2018 comparison central to the current Bitcoin bear case?
Both years are midterm cycles. In 2018, BTC printed a February low, a higher low in late March and early April, then a lower high in late April before a multi-month decline that ultimately broke the prior low. The video argues 2026 is repeating that structure with a $60K February low.
-
What is the 100-day moving average doing for Bitcoin right now?
BTC is pressing against the 100-day MA in mid-April at roughly $75K — the same level that capped the January 15 local high. A durable daily close above it has not yet happened, and 2018 and 2022 midterms both saw rejections at this average.
-
Why does the Fed meeting on April 29 matter for Bitcoin's near-term path?
The video times its expected lower high to the April 29 FOMC and the coinciding Bank of Japan rate decision, mapping the 2018 pattern where the local high printed in late April before the summer leg down. The macro calendar and the seasonality window are aligned.
-
What is time-based capitulation versus price-based capitulation?
Price-based capitulation focuses on the depth of the drawdown. Time-based capitulation focuses on duration — a level being tested repeatedly before it breaks. The video argues $60K is more likely to be tested multiple times through 2026 than to break in a single move.
-
Why does stablecoin dominance matter for the Bitcoin outlook?
USDT and USDC dominance is sitting on its bull market support band, the same configuration that preceded the 2022 stablecoin expansion phase that coincided with BTC selling pressure. A sweep of the stablecoin dominance low would likely correspond to BTC tagging its own bear market resistance band.
WuBlockchain
CoinDesk
TheBlock
WatcherGuru
CoinTelegraph
Crypto News