Glassnode
Glassnode's Bitcoin Vector framework is currently flagging a Strong Risk-Off regime for Bitcoin, a state that has been in place since an October 12, 2025 inflection marked structural weakness. The framework classifies market conditions across four states: Strong-Off Capitulation, Mild-Off Caution, Mild-On Accumulation, and Strong-On Euphoria, and outputs a daily BTC/cash allocation tied to that read.
The current call keeps users 100% in cash. Across 2024 and 2025, the framework published $133K of upside across four Risk-On periods and shielded $73K of drawdown across four Risk-Off periods, a cumulative 2.07x edge versus unhedged holding on a $100K base, with every call published before price confirmed. The latest inflection in October 2025 kept the strategy defensive through what Glassnode frames as a 45% drawdown event.
Why it matters
Bitcoin Vector is structured around one bet: that regime shifts happen before price confirms them, and that tracking momentum thresholds and capital flows can isolate those turning points in advance. The framework's own track record leans on that premise. The October 2025 inflection to Risk-Off was followed by four-plus months of cash positioning, a defensive stance that protected capital through the subsequent drawdown.
The current read is that the headline Strong-Off state remains, but underlying metrics are beginning to pivot. A regime shift is not the same thing as a price bottom, but Vector is built to flag the structural turn first.
Market impact
The next inflection is the trade. A flip to Mild-Off Caution would mark the first risk appetite recovery since October 2025, while a move to Mild-On Accumulation would re-enter BTC exposure at scale for the first time in roughly eight months. Glassnode alerts subscribers in real time when the state changes. Bitcoin Vector is sold as a standalone product at $749 per month, separate from Glassnode's broader Digital Assets Expert's Insights tier at $1,499 per month, reflecting the narrower BTC-regime focus versus broader crypto market interpretation.
Source: [Title: Bitcoin Vector - Pricing - Glassnode](https://glassnode.com/pricing/vector?utm_campaign=vector_engagement&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social)
Frequently asked questions
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What is Glassnode's Bitcoin Vector framework?
Bitcoin Vector is a Glassnode product that classifies Bitcoin market conditions into four risk regimes (Strong-Off Capitulation, Mild-Off Caution, Mild-On Accumulation, Strong-On Euphoria) and outputs a daily BTC/cash allocation tied to the current state.
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What is Bitcoin Vector's current risk regime reading?
Bitcoin Vector is currently reading Strong Risk-Off for Bitcoin, a state that has been in place since an October 12, 2025 inflection flagged structural weakness, with the framework holding 100% cash.
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What is Bitcoin Vector's track record?
Across 2024 and 2025 on a $100K base, the framework published $133K of upside across four Risk-On periods and shielded $73K of drawdown across four Risk-Off periods, a cumulative 2.07x edge versus unhedged holding, with every call published before price confirmed.
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Why might a Bitcoin bottom be forming under the Strong Risk-Off signal?
Glassnode's commentary notes that even though the headline Strong-Off regime hasn't flipped, underlying metrics are beginning to pivot, a pattern associated with potential bottom formation before the regime signal confirms.
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How much does Bitcoin Vector cost?
Bitcoin Vector is priced at $749 per month, billed quarterly. It is sold as a standalone product separate from Glassnode's broader Digital Assets Expert's Insights tier at $1,499 per month.
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