CoinDesk
More Bitcoin is now held at a loss than at a profit for the first time since the current cycle began, with roughly 10.83 million BTC underwater against 9.22 million still in the green, according to Glassnode data. The crossover reflects how deep the correction from Bitcoin's roughly $109,000 January peak has cut, with BTC trading at $61,361 on Thursday, up 0.7% on the day and 2.5% on the week but still about 44% below that all-time high, per CoinDesk pricing.
Why it matters
Historically, these supply crossovers have landed near periods of peak financial stress and capitulation among newer buyers, marking the points at which coins migrate from weaker hands to stronger ones. Holders with high conviction tend to sit on losses rather than sell, and long-term holder accumulation plus rising wallet-cohort balances across several size brackets have run alongside this latest deterioration in profitability. The crossover is therefore a stress gauge, not a death knell, and previous episodes in 2018-19 and 2022 both preceded extended basing before a sustained recovery.
Market impact
Whether the supply crossover marks a bottom depends on what follows it. The chart does not resolve on its own; returning ETF flows and easing macro pressure are the inputs that convert an accumulation signal into a price signal. In the near term, broader majors have outperformed the drawdown: Ether added 4.2% to $1,702 and Solana led the complex at 18.6% on the week to $80.44 with volume above $3.6 billion, suggesting the rotation out of $BTC has not turned into a wholesale risk-off across crypto.
Frequently asked questions
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How much Bitcoin is currently held at a loss vs at a profit?
Roughly 10.83 million BTC are held at a loss against 9.22 million still in profit, the first time loss-making supply has overtaken profitable supply since the current cycle began, according to Glassnode.
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Why is this supply crossover considered a stress signal?
Historically these crossovers have landed near periods of peak financial stress and capitulation among newer buyers, and they tend to mark the points at which coins migrate from weaker hands to stronger, higher-conviction holders.
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Where is Bitcoin trading now relative to its all-time high?
Bitcoin traded at $61,361 on Thursday, up 0.7% on the day and 2.5% on the week, but still about 44% below its roughly $109,000 January peak, per CoinDesk pricing.
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Have similar crossovers in past cycles marked the bottom?
Past crossovers in 2018-19 and 2022 preceded months of basing before a sustained recovery. They were not immediate reversal signals but tended to bracket the eventual cycle low over time.
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What would confirm that this crossover is a bottom rather than just a stress read?
The chart signal converts into a price signal when ETF flows turn positive again and macro pressure eases, with long-term holder accumulation and rising wallet-cohort balances already running alongside the deterioration in profitability.
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