TheBlock
William Blair analysts see Coinbase and Circle shares positioned for a broader crypto recovery, even as spot trading volumes remain depressed. Coinbase shares have gained 31% since July 14, while Circle shares are up 52% since Bitcoin's July 1 low. The analysts reiterated outperform ratings on both stocks.
Why it matters
William Blair cut its 2026 EBITDA estimate for Coinbase by 11% to $810 million, but left 2027 and 2028 estimates roughly unchanged. The analysts said estimates may be nearing a trough as Bitcoin rallies, crypto collateral use expands and tokenized real-world assets grow. The market for tokenized assets has reached $39 billion, up from $26 billion at the end of 2025.
Regulatory rulemaking could also improve sentiment after the Senate failed to advance the Clarity Act. The analysts pointed to the SEC's tokenized-equity trading exemption and expect the SEC and CFTC to fill remaining gaps through rulemaking.
Market impact
Coinbase's newer businesses are becoming a larger part of its earnings mix. Retail derivatives generated about $200 million in annualized revenue in the first quarter, while prediction markets reached $100 million in the second quarter. Together, they represent roughly 6% of estimated 2026 revenue and provide streams less tied to spot trading.
For Circle, the next valuation catalyst is expected to be USDC growth. William Blair expects USDC's market cap to follow Bitcoin higher, potentially with a lag, and sees Circle's long-term value in a global stablecoin payments and transaction network rather than reserve income alone. The stalled Clarity Act also leaves stablecoin rewards and the current regulatory status quo largely intact.
Frequently asked questions
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Why does William Blair see a recovery case for Coinbase?
The analysts cited Bitcoin's rally, expanding crypto-collateral use, tokenized assets and growth in Coinbase's derivatives and prediction-market businesses.
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What happened to Coinbase's 2026 EBITDA estimate?
William Blair cut the 2026 EBITDA estimate by 11% to $810 million, while leaving its 2027 and 2028 estimates roughly unchanged.
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How large are Coinbase's newer revenue streams?
Retail derivatives generated about $200 million in annualized revenue in the first quarter, and prediction markets reached $100 million in the second quarter.
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What is expected to drive Circle's next valuation move?
William Blair identified USDC growth as the next catalyst and expects USDC's market cap to follow Bitcoin higher, potentially with a lag.
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Why are regulatory developments important for these stocks?
The SEC's tokenized-equity exemption and expected SEC and CFTC rulemaking could improve crypto-market sentiment after the Senate failed to advance the Clarity Act.
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