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🔥BULLISH

Coinbase income jumps 66% as prediction markets double

Prediction markets topped $200 million in annualized revenue, while subscription and services revenue neared half of net revenue, helping cushion softer spot trading.

Coinbase reported third-quarter net income of $719 million, up 66% year over year from $433 million. Total revenue was $1.22 billion, broadly flat from the previous quarter but down 35% year over year. A $715 million gain on crypto assets held for investment contributed to net income, compared with $424 million a year earlier.

Why it matters

The standout growth came from businesses that can diversify Coinbase beyond spot trading. Prediction markets surpassed $200 million in annualized revenue, doubling from roughly $100 million the previous quarter. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said the product continued to grow during slower sports months, supported by crypto contracts.

Subscription and services revenue also grew quarter over quarter and now represents nearly half of net revenue, CFO Alesia Haas said. Stablecoin revenue reached $328 million, up 3% quarter over quarter, including $21 million from USDC held in corporate balances. Bernstein analysts estimated prediction markets and derivatives generated about 25% of transaction revenue, or roughly 12% of total revenue.

Market impact

Spot trading volume fell 8% quarter over quarter to $135 billion, although Coinbase gained market share. Derivatives volume declined 7% to roughly $986 billion, less than the industry's 11% drop, according to Bernstein. The figures show new and subscription-based lines helping offset weaker trading activity, though investment gains also materially supported reported income.

Bernstein and William Blair reiterated their Outperform ratings. Bernstein kept its $250 price target, while William Blair's valuation analysis suggested roughly $240. Coinbase shares closed down 1.07% at $160.59 on Thursday.

Related tokens
$USDC

Frequently asked questions

  1. How much revenue did Coinbase's prediction markets generate?

    The business surpassed $200 million in annualized revenue, doubling from roughly $100 million the previous quarter.

  2. What contributed to Coinbase's $719 million in net income?

    Net income included a $715 million gain on crypto assets held for investment, compared with a $424 million gain a year earlier.

  3. How did Coinbase's trading volumes change in Q3?

    Spot volume fell 8% quarter over quarter to $135 billion. Derivatives volume declined 7% to roughly $986 billion.

  4. How did Coinbase's derivatives performance compare with the industry?

    Coinbase derivatives volume fell 7% quarter over quarter, compared with an 11% decline in industry derivatives volumes, according to Bernstein.

  5. How much stablecoin revenue did Coinbase report?

    Stablecoin revenue was $328 million, up 3% quarter over quarter. That included $21 million attributable to USDC held in corporate balances.

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