CryptoSlate
A four-contract Kalshi package built from Oct. 28 Senate-market quotes cost $3.02 before fees, while paying $3 in either of its two aligned outcomes. The package combines YES on Democratic Senate control with NO positions on three Democratic seat-count outcomes: exactly 51, exactly 52 and above 52.
The contracts do not necessarily resolve on the same basis. Kalshi’s control market can resolve early after declarations from designated media outlets, while seat-count contracts use Senate composition on Feb. 1, 2027. A vacancy, caucus change or altered race outcome between those determinations could leave the positions out of alignment.
The quotes also showed a 64.5% midpoint for control and an approximately 62.1% normalized estimate from the seat-count markets. Those figures compare prices; buying the four positions requires paying the quoted asks. No orders were executed, and fees would add to the cost.
Frequently asked questions
-
What positions make up the four-contract Kalshi package?
It combines YES on Democratic Senate control with NO on exactly 51, exactly 52 and above 52 Democratic seats.
-
How much did the package cost compared with its aligned payout?
The quoted purchase prices totaled $3.02 before fees. Either aligned outcome would pay $3, a two-cent loss before fees.
-
Why might the control and seat-count contracts resolve differently?
The control market can resolve early after designated media declarations, while seat-count contracts use Senate composition on Feb. 1, 2027.
-
What was the difference between the control midpoint and the seat-count estimate?
The control midpoint was 64.5%, compared with an approximately 62.1% normalized estimate from the seat-count markets.
-
Were the quoted four positions actually traded?
No orders were executed. The $3.02 total uses purchase quotes captured on Oct. 28 and excludes fees.
WatcherGuru
TheBlock
CoinTelegraph
WuBlockchain
CoinDesk
Lookonchain