Corporate Bitcoin treasuries face a debt clock forcing BTC liquidations

Corporate Bitcoin treasuries sit beneath a stack of obligations that turn into forced selling on fixed dates, regardless of management's view of the asset. Matthew Sigel at VanEck has mapped who ranks above the coins inside each public company's capital structure: creditors, preferred shareholders, secured lenders, common shareholders, and the operating business itself. A maturity, redemption, or dividend can require a company to sell Bitcoin even when the long-term thesis is intact.

The clearest case study is Strategy. Its May 25 filing reported 843,738 BTC alongside $6.7 billion in convertible notes, $15.5 billion in preferred stock, and an $871 million cash reserve. STRC, the variable-rate perpetual preferred, traded near par through mid-May 2026 then drifted below it for 30 sessions as Bitcoin fell from an October high near $126,000 toward $58,000 in late June. Strategy sold 32 BTC for roughly $2.5 million in late May to fund STRC distributions, its first Bitcoin sale since it began accumulating in 2022, paused its at-the-market equity program, and on June 29 rolled out a Digital Credit Capital Framework that lifted STRC's dividend to 12% with a 0.5pp ratchet each time the stock closes below $95.

Why it matters

The mechanic is not unique to Strategy. MARA sold 15,133 BTC in March to repurchase about $1 billion of converts due 2030 and 2031, and its Q1 filing showed roughly 20,880 BTC sold during the quarter with another 9,995 BTC loaned or pledged. KULR's 2026 filing carries a first-priority security interest in Bitcoin collateral, with 300 BTC pledged against a $15 million loan above the minimum required threshold. JPMorgan flagged Strategy's new sales policy as a source of two-way risk for Bitcoin markets, and Onramp Institutional estimated retail investors hold about $8.8 billion of STRC, roughly 83% of the buyer base. The trade works while Bitcoin rises, shares trade above NAV, and capital markets stay open to new issuance. Once those conditions weaken, selling Bitcoin to fund buybacks, dividends, or debt service becomes the more rational move.

Market impact

Public companies now hold roughly 1.285 million BTC, with debt and preferred maturities concentrated in 2027 and 2028. In the bull case, calendar-driven selling stays near 0.5% to 1.0% of holdings, or roughly 6,400 to 12,900 coins over two years. In the bear case, refinancing gets harder, mNAV discounts persist, and convertibles stay out of the money, lifting calendar-driven selling to 6% to 10% of holdings, or roughly 77,100 to 128,500 BTC arriving on a fixed schedule.