Fidelity's director of global macro says Bitcoin is building a large base in preparation for the next major wave, framing the current consolidation as accumulation rather than exhaustion. He had previously called for a $65,000 bottom — a level Bitcoin later tagged — and now expects the asset to move higher.
The liquidity backdrop is shifting in parallel. The US Treasury has bought back roughly $138 billion of its own debt year-to-date, including nearly $50 billion in April alone — a record-setting pace of so-called not-QE. Combined with Fed balance sheet expansion, TGA releases of around $90 billion, and tens of billions flowing through Fed repo facilities, the result is a multi-channel liquidity environment that has historically preceded major risk-asset rallies. Equities have already responded, with the Russell 2000 leading the move; crypto tends to follow.
Why it matters
The structural pieces are starting to align. Incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh has publicly argued that AI-driven productivity gains will keep growth non-inflationary, opening the door to rate cuts. Senator Cynthia Lummis now says the Clarity Act has bipartisan and presidential support — a key milestone for crypto market structure legislation. And with 95% of investors still holding zero Bitcoin exposure, the room for institutional adoption is enormous if regulatory clarity lands.
Market impact
SwissBlock's head of macro frames Bitcoin's current price action as a beach ball held underwater — suppressed by leverage-driven selling on derivatives venues, but ready to spring back. Fidelity's macro team is now calling for a move higher off this base. Tom Lee, while more cautious on equities into the midterms, remains constructive on Bitcoin over the long arc. If the Clarity Act markup advances through the banking committee and Warsh is confirmed, the combination of regulatory clarity and easing financial conditions could mark the start of a structurally different leg for BTC.
Frequently asked questions
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What did Fidelity's director of global macro say about Bitcoin?
He said Bitcoin is building a large base in preparation for the next major wave. He had previously predicted a $65,000 bottom, which played out, and now expects the asset to move higher from here.
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How much debt has the US Treasury bought back this year?
Roughly $138 billion year-to-date, including nearly $50 billion in April alone — a record-setting pace described as not-QE. Combined with Fed balance sheet expansion, TGA releases, and repo facility flows, it creates a multi-channel liquidity environment.
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What is incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh's view on rate cuts?
Warsh has argued that AI-driven productivity gains will keep economic growth non-inflationary, which would justify rate cuts. He has also criticized the Fed for relying on outdated models from 1978 that may not recognize a productivity boom.
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What is the status of the Clarity Act?
Senator Cynthia Lummis says there is bipartisan and presidential support to advance the Clarity Act, calling it a key moment for crypto legislation. The banking committee markup is the next step, though banks continue to push back and time is running out before November midterms.
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Why do analysts compare the current setup to the early internet?
Bitcoin wallet adoption is back to 1996 internet levels, and 95% of investors still hold zero BTC exposure. Tom Lee and others argue that if regulatory clarity arrives, the addressable market for institutional adoption is enormous.
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