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The NFL is backing New Jersey regulators in asking the Supreme Court to treat sports prediction contracts as gambling, not financial swaps. In an amicus brief in Flaherty v. KalshiEX, LLC, the league argues that contracts offered by Kalshi and other prediction markets should not fall under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s exclusive jurisdiction.
The league says swaps traditionally hedge preexisting financial risk, while sports contracts let consumers wager on events in which they have no underlying financial interest. The court’s decision could determine whether prediction markets can offer sports contracts nationwide under federal oversight or face state gambling laws.
Why it matters
The dispute arrives as sports-related trading becomes a major part of prediction markets. The NFL says nearly $2 billion of the $3.3 billion in prediction-market volume on the first Sunday of the NFL season was tied to league events. Overall prediction-market trading volume exceeded $25 billion in 2025, while Kalshi had cleared more than $173 billion in total volume by late August 2026.
The NFL’s position also puts it at odds with the federal-regulation approach it has previously supported. It argues that operators should use safeguards comparable to state-regulated sportsbooks, including limits on certain contracts, higher age restrictions and cooperation with leagues on insider information.
Market impact
A ruling for the NFL and New Jersey could leave sports-contract operators facing state-by-state rules, while a decision favoring Kalshi could strengthen the case for a consistent federal framework. Kalshi says the CFTC already oversees these markets and that federal rules offer greater consistency.
The leagues are not aligned: MLB has partnered with Polymarket and the CFTC on prediction markets and betting integrity, while the NHL has licensing agreements with both Polymarket and Kalshi. Polymarket also has an exclusive licensing deal with MLS. The Supreme Court’s treatment of the contracts, rather than the sporting events themselves, is central to the dispute.
Frequently asked questions
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What is the NFL asking the Supreme Court to decide?
The NFL is backing New Jersey regulators and argues that sports prediction contracts are gambling, not financial swaps covered by the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction.
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Why does the NFL say sports contracts are not swaps?
The league argues that swaps traditionally hedge preexisting financial risk, while sports contracts expose consumers to event outcomes in which they have no underlying financial interest.
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How much prediction-market activity did the NFL say was tied to its games?
The NFL said nearly $2 billion of $3.3 billion in prediction-market volume on the first Sunday of the NFL season was tied to league events.
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What could a ruling mean for sports prediction markets?
A ruling could determine whether sports contracts can be offered nationwide under federal CFTC oversight or whether states can apply their own gambling laws.
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How do Kalshi and other sports leagues respond to the dispute?
Kalshi says the CFTC already oversees sports-related markets and offers a more consistent framework. MLB and the NHL have pursued different partnerships with prediction-market operators.
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