CoinDesk
Meta is developing an experimental prediction market-style app called Arena that would let users forecast outcomes in politics, sports, entertainment and world affairs, the New York Times reported, citing people familiar with the matter. Unlike Polymarket or Kalshi, Arena is expected to use a video game-like points system rather than cash, though Meta has not ruled out eventually allowing real-money betting. People described the product as both experimental and a top priority inside the company.
Why it matters
The project is a revival of Meta's 2020 Forecast product, which the company shut down in 2022, and lands at a moment when prediction markets have crossed into the mainstream. Polymarket's breakout during the 2024 U.S. presidential election drove billions in volume and pulled the category into political conversation. Arena would attempt a different on-ramp: points rather than cash, gamified rather than wagered, distributed through an app that already reaches billions of users rather than a crypto-native venue.
Market impact
The competitive field is already crowded. Coinbase and Kraken have explored event contracts, Robinhood has rolled out political and economic event products, and Kalshi and Polymarket have captured the cash-wagering niche. The legal picture is unsettled: the CFTC has been wrestling with whether event contracts are legitimate hedges or prohibited gaming, and critics argue that markets tied to elections and geopolitics blur the line between financial instruments and gambling. A Meta launch, even a points-based one, would force that debate to a much larger audience.
Frequently asked questions
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What is Meta's Arena prediction market app?
Arena is an experimental app under development at Meta that would let users forecast outcomes in politics, sports, entertainment and world affairs. Unlike Polymarket or Kalshi, it is expected to use a points system rather than cash wagers, though Meta has not ruled out real-money betting later.
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How is Arena different from Polymarket and Kalshi?
Polymarket and Kalshi are cash-based prediction markets where users wager money on event outcomes. Arena would replace cash with a video game-like points system, lowering the regulatory bar on day one while keeping the door open to real-money trading in the future.
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Why is Meta entering prediction markets now?
Prediction markets broke into the mainstream during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, when Polymarket pulled in billions in trading volume. Meta sees an opportunity to distribute a gamified version of the same product to an existing audience of billions through Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp.
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What happened to Meta's earlier Forecast app?
Meta launched Forecast in 2020 during the early stages of the Covid pandemic, encouraging users to predict current events and emerging trends. The company took Forecast down in 2022, and Arena is being framed internally as a revival of that effort.
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What are the regulatory risks for Meta's prediction market?
The CFTC has spent years debating whether event contracts are legitimate hedging instruments or prohibited gaming. Critics argue that markets tied to elections, geopolitics and other sensitive events blur the line between finance and gambling, and a Meta-scale launch would put that debate in front of a much larger…
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