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NYDIG said Bitcoin's 2025–2026 drawdown is increasingly resembling the four-year cycle corrections seen in 2014, 2018 and 2022. If the current decline matches the depth and duration of those prior bear markets, BTC could reach a cycle low near $38,000–$39,000 later this year.
Bitcoin is down nearly 50% from its October 2025 all-time high of about $126,000 and has underperformed assets including U.S. Treasuries, silver and the Swiss franc this year. That puts the current pullback in the same statistical bracket as past four-year corrections rather than a shallower mid-cycle dip.
Why it matters
NYDIG's framing matters less for the specific $38K–$39K target than for the conditional. The firm is reading current price action through a cycle-analytics lens rather than a fresh macro forecast, which means the bottom is a function of how closely 2025–2026 tracks 2014, 2018 and 2022 in depth and duration. A deeper or longer drawdown would push the implied low below that band; a faster recovery would invalidate it entirely.
Market impact
Underperformance against Treasuries, silver and the Swiss franc shifts the read away from a pure crypto-rotation story and toward a risk-off environment where traditional safe havens are winning the capital. Watch whether BTC reclaims prior cycle recovery pace or extends duration; that is what separates a $38K floor from a deeper retest.
Frequently asked questions
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What is NYDIG's Bitcoin price prediction?
NYDIG said BTC could bottom near $38,000–$39,000 later this year if the 2025–2026 drawdown matches the depth and duration of the 2014, 2018 and 2022 four-year cycle corrections.
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How far has Bitcoin fallen from its all-time high?
Bitcoin is down nearly 50% from its October 2025 all-time high of about $126,000.
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Which assets has Bitcoin underperformed this year?
According to NYDIG, BTC has underperformed U.S. Treasuries, silver and the Swiss franc year-to-date.
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Why does the four-year cycle matter for Bitcoin?
Past four-year cycles produced corrections in 2014, 2018 and 2022. NYDIG is reading the current decline through that historical pattern to estimate a potential cycle low.
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Is the $38K–$39K target a guaranteed floor?
No. The call is conditional on depth and duration matching prior cycles; a deeper or longer drawdown would push the implied low lower, while a faster recovery would invalidate it.
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