Oil shock corners the Fed days before its April meeting — and Bitcoin is in the crossfire!

With the FOMC convening April 28-29 and first-quarter GDP plus March PCE data dropping on April 30, markets are staring down a three-day gauntlet that could reprice the entire rate-cut narrative. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem warned that high oil prices could keep core inflation near 3% — well above the 2% target — while New York Fed President John Williams said Middle East developments are already lifting inflation pressures and uncertainty.

The physical disruption behind the oil spike remains severe. On April 20, Strait of Hormuz traffic fell to near-standstill after warning shots and the seizure of an Iranian cargo ship, with ship-tracking data showing only a handful of crossings over 12 hours against the usual pace of roughly 130 vessels a day. Cargoes, insurers, shipowners, and refiners all need time to adjust — meaning the Fed has to act on realized pressure, not just…