TheBlock
Polymarket has appointed Mike Eidlin, formerly head of Japan at Solana DEX aggregator Jupiter, to lead its push into the Japanese market as the prediction venue seeks government approval to operate there by 2030, Bloomberg reported Friday. The move comes as Polymarket's monthly trading volume fell to $9 billion in April from $10.57 billion in March — its first monthly decline since August 2025 — while rival Kalshi's April volume rose to $14.81 billion from $13 billion the month prior.
Eidlin is Polymarket's first named regional lead for Japan, a market the platform currently lists as restricted on its help-center page due to "regulatory requirements and compliance with international sanctions." The hire signals that Polymarket is treating Japan as a structural growth bet, not a one-off lobbying effort, and is willing to fund a multi-year licensing path to get there.
Why it matters
Japan's regulatory frame is a hard wall: the Penal Code criminalizes habitual gambling with up to three years' imprisonment, and operating a gambling business carries a three-month-to-five-year sentence. Public lotteries and government-authorized horse racing are explicitly carved out, and pachinko has survived in a legal gray area through arcade-token exchange schemes — neither model is a clean fit for an event-contract venue. The 2030 timeline Polymarket is reportedly targeting reflects that reality: this is a licensing and lobbying build, not a product launch.
The competitive pressure is real. Kalshi has pulled ahead in monthly volume for the second consecutive month, and Polymarket's first decline since August 2025 — even as Kalshi grew — means the US venue is now trading more than 1.6x Polymarket's notional. Japan, with a population that has historically embraced regulated retail speculation, is one of the few remaining TAMs large enough to matter at that scale.
Market impact
The expansion lands in the middle of a regulatory squeeze elsewhere.
Frequently asked questions
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Who is leading Polymarket's Japan expansion?
Mike Eidlin, formerly head of Japan at Solana DEX aggregator Jupiter, has been appointed to lead Polymarket's efforts in the country, according to Bloomberg.
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When does Polymarket expect to get approved in Japan?
Polymarket is targeting regulatory approval to operate in Japan by 2030, Bloomberg reported, citing sources familiar with the matter.
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Why is Japan currently restricted on Polymarket?
Polymarket lists Japan as restricted on its help-center page due to "regulatory requirements and compliance with international sanctions." Japan's Penal Code criminalizes habitual gambling.
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How is Polymarket's volume trending against Kalshi?
Polymarket's April monthly volume fell to $9B from $10.57B in March — its first monthly decline since August 2025 — while Kalshi grew to $14.81B from $13B.
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What regulatory pressure is Polymarket facing elsewhere?
The CFTC and DOJ sued Minnesota over a state prediction-market ban, South Korea's media watchdog is examining Polymarket for illegal gambling content, and India has blocked the platform and is moving against Kalshi.
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