CoinTelegraph
Polymarket traders assign Democrats a 67% chance of winning the Senate in 2026, compared with 34% for Republicans. The figures are market-implied probabilities, not polling results or a guarantee of the election outcome.
The near-even split, with the two figures totaling 101% due to rounding, captures how traders are pricing the race at this point. Expectations can shift as the election approaches.
Frequently asked questions
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What chances do Polymarket traders assign to Democrats winning the Senate in 2026?
Traders assign Democrats a 67% chance of winning the Senate in 2026.
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What probability do traders assign to Republicans winning the Senate?
Polymarket traders assign Republicans a 34% chance.
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Are Polymarket’s figures polling results?
No. The figures are market-implied probabilities, not polling results.
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Do the figures guarantee the 2026 Senate election outcome?
No. They reflect traders’ expectations and do not guarantee the election outcome.
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Why do the two reported probabilities total 101%?
The figures total 101% because of rounding.
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