WuBlockchain
Galaxy Research found that 69.2% of roughly 2.9 million human-paced retail accounts on Polymarket’s international platform finished below break-even. Their aggregate losses were $338.9 million, according to an analysis of onchain settlement data curated by Stork.
Why it matters
Losses were associated with a sharp difference in subsequent activity. After a loss, 15.2% of accounts did not trade again within 30 days, compared with 6.1% after a win. The figures link trading outcomes to retention, though they do not establish why individual accounts stopped trading.
Market impact
About 44.1% of traders put more than 60% of their activity into one topic. Sports traders accounted for 47% of these specialists and had the lowest profitability rate, at 25.1%. Tech and science specialists had the highest rate, at 41.2%, but came from a smaller sample.
Profitable traders had a median position size of $13.96, against $10 for unprofitable traders. Holding time showed no clear relationship with profitability. For Polymarket, the findings put retail losses and return activity at the center of the adoption picture.
Frequently asked questions
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What accounts did Galaxy Research analyze?
Galaxy Research examined roughly 2.9 million human-paced retail accounts on Polymarket’s international platform, using onchain settlement data curated by Stork.
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How did losses relate to subsequent trading?
After a loss, 15.2% of accounts did not trade again within 30 days, compared with 6.1% after a win. The figures do not show whether those accounts left permanently.
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How did the analysis define a topic specialist?
The analysis counted traders who concentrated more than 60% of their activity in a single topic. About 44.1% of traders met that threshold.
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Which Polymarket topic specialists were most profitable?
Tech and science specialists had the highest profitability rate at 41.2%, though their sample was smaller. Sports specialists had the lowest rate at 25.1% and made up 47% of specialists.
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Did position size or holding time differ by profitability?
Profitable traders had a median position size of $13.96, versus $10 for unprofitable traders. Holding time showed no clear relationship with profitability.
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